Nov 3, 2014|
Pollster Dave Paleologos ran down the ballots and ballot questions for the New England states urging everyone to get out and vote!
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
We're joined now by they've illegal overseas the pollster for Suffolk university in the Boston Herald. And at this time it's too late to do it poll than the empire state or any empire state but instead Dave has done a poll for the Harold Suffolk University on Bellwether communities the user communities. In in the two states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts. That tend to mirror the the the results of the state as a whole. And we wanted to have Dave on two war talk about what he discovered in his polling in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Dave thanks for being with us here on the highway car show. What's Leo what's the story in the in Massachusetts first one that went by towns or cities did you use and what's the one of the results. OK so Waltham and Gloucester are laughing at Gloucester if you look at the last two gubernatorial. General elections 20100602. They have picked very correct when there and have been within 3% of the candidates. In three. So and then both both bellwethers. We've got baker had a ball. And it but it's close in will mobbed him as similar to what you're seeing and a lot of recent statewide polling. They could 46 Coakley 423. For our chart. One each from McCormick and lively and five undecided and there was some refusals and there are two. And in the Gloucester are it was a little bit closer one point 45 speaker 44 Coakley. 5% for evidence are checked very interesting was getting 5% in Gloucester one each for lively and McCormick 4% undecided when it. And so why is is a race tightened is that the conclusion we should draw. I hate I. Thanks so I think so you know they undecided. Discreet factors left the undecided without checked voters and whether or not there's a strong field operation in the urban centers for the Coakley campaign. Those of those three things that no one can can protect and the textbooks says that the undecideds because tropical resort known quantity the undecided she attacked two to baker. The object photos you know. Hard to say because he needs 3%. To get the united of the credit party. Who cares about that other than a help and nobody hears. His support at a time I was surprised to see the 5% in Gloucester 3% of swap them. So and knew what makes it more complicated especially to baker is that. Felt chuck in the other independents are drawing a large percentage of their support from the pen. You know I talked to somebody the state house they had Democrat who's pretty pretty. Pretty sic Abby and in the end I told them I said that you but I think in the I'll check is pulling away some Blake or voters in addition to Coakley voters and he said. Come on how can anyone listened comrade fell charts for more than a minute and and the site to not to vote for Charlie Baker I think all its call common article east high day. I'm not seeing it you may be right beside that is very small when you're only talking about three to 5% in the survey you're talking about you know a dozen people fifteen responded so. But what we're seeing him and what we've seen in the statewide polling as well is that the the democratic voters and Republican voters. Really are kind. The third party candidate so blogs arch this year gusto so where those where those can it's gonna get polite to their votes they're gonna get a from independents out. Whether they're left leaning independents like you say that Coakley voters over the permits. Going to throw out chuck that may very well be true but I'm seeing that. There are drawing from the pool of independents overall. That potentially could be problematic because baker needs every and to pay he needs to win by thirty points among independents to beat Coakley. What was your head you're the last that a week ago. High twenties he's been he's been put there right there they're right on the cost. Baker is in terms of democratic voters in independent voters so. You know any last minute decision by like I say. You know undecided voters out to voters in the poll boo or the operations of field operations or lack thereof. All the Coakley campaign any urban centers all gonna play a role in the outlook or both of them both have the bulk of the bellwethers have baker has but it's. Okay let's talk about New Hampshire now. Two to get too used to one city in one town writer. So we've got to we've got to two areas are what is the atomic tapping it and want as Manchester now. Count two very different in terms of their party registration Manchester you know has more Democrats than Republicans. Even stay. Why but it's a conservative city. It is in the independents tend to vote. Are Republicans. And tapping it has a registration advantage the other way it is more registered Republicans and happened so. You've got two different situations but they both mirroring both the governor and senate race of 22 and 20062002. Governor's race statewide in New Hampshire and the findings were peachy keen with leading. But the undecided and both of these bellwethers was really high I think compared to the masters it's one so we had kicking 444114. Undecided. In app being. And 4740. Sheen twelve undecided with one refusal. And Manchester. Now that that the good news for brown is that most of the undecideds have been coming to him. We start we we talked about this back in June Sheen was 49 brown keeps growing exporting dot. That's the good news the bad news is that all of these towns are located in counties. That brown needs to win big for example. Rockingham county. The contains. One of these power war that's like epic. And in Hillsborough County which is you know the right. And that contains are missing its lease. Us. When this thing in Manchester it does track with a statewide vote but you know that that county Hillsborough County. Also contains about a big city Nashua. And if if if brown doesn't carry nationalist. Rule strong. In potentially even in Manchester he needs to win national. And Manchester I mean mattress as the Bellwether certainly but. Help the vote comes out of that county pilgrim county and Rockingham county and then the other rate counties and capture a split the other half of the vote so. How you know but both of these show actually came as she came slightly ahead. In the areas where brought should be waiting you know comfortably and he still cook because these undecideds could tell them. That we just couldn't get out of because they were actually undecided. Or that they had already voted neighbor refusing response. So why it's so yeah I do we just told Scott we just gave most numbers and I he said well I guess I better give up on many started laughing so he's he used to. He's continuing ahead despite the I don't know what somewhat discouraging news review would be better if he was in the lead obviously from his point of view but. But it's it's it's a ten outlets are. No no no it isn't because the undecided is so high and you and that number should predispose. To browse however you know the numbers are the numbers and if you know it's seeking creates it creates a firewall in Manchester in the national law. Even if she loses national and she breaks even and Manchester that takes away a big opportunity for. For brown to run up big margins in browns should win. Rockingham county and he did really well on the primary and Rockingham county Hillsborough County he also needs away and went comfortably. But it Sheen is making some progress slightly polls shows in Manchester. How about the governor's fight in New Hampshire mean that the idea the other Paul I know you didn't Paula but the polls indeed the other polling outfits have shown that it's now within the margin of air Corso wore haven't steam spine seems to be closing fast. We did call and act yeah it's it's it's on the Bellwether of what will. The way to think about it is that passed then. Is running a few points better than changing. So she's this well we are in terms of the margin she's running she's running better so what does it was march and it is capital loses. Then Sheen definitely loses. This is because she's running bad that Sheen in terms of the market. But you know it could be a situation where you know if if you mean if she if if if cops and when buyout are very narrow margin. Then she came probably will loads. If captain went by a comfortable margin which is what this is showing. You're showing her assigned tasks and is ahead by a comfortable margin but the other poll the so your your your rush showing her further ahead in most of the other polls. That's right that's right and then the last statewide policy was she was polling better also. And the reason why is that haven't Stein didn't have the name recognition. In the last. Why we just got some money from the a Republican governors' association right and he should and finally been on the airwaves. Yes he did but brown brought as much better name recognition that happens stuff I mean I think I mean my own personal opinion is rating to a reading what I'm saying is. If if a Republican wins between the two brown has the better shot to win. You know albeit he's got you know he's got some geographic challenges here from the from what we're seeing from the bellwethers. So wise so then it it's so uptight troubled races are pretty tight though when New Hampshire just like it. Hi I decided I mean it's not like the Massachusetts poll and it. Massachusetts Ali you know this may sound crazy you know but the winner may not get fist day. Amid the winner of the match it's governor's race may not get 50%. Why would be like a Deval Patrick victory in 2000 talent. Absolutely you might have used you know I you know the rate it could be 49444945. Or you know or sticks and you know because it looks like the independent it's gonna grab at least 5% at this point. So why you where are you pulling any other states. Odd adult lob Louisiana was the last. The last the state that we told and down if people are online and they wanna check out I listed a bunch of other bellwethers and a bunch of other states. Outside of Massachusetts and and New Hampshire case there. Trends it's on the USA today online. And it's it's an article titled the sixteen or seventeen counties to watch outside of outside and we. You called Louisiana oval before Mary Landry so radical everybody racist and sexist and harassment Oca how. That's a good way to mobilize your base. It's like that but that's one thing that it's it's amazing to me you know you learn everything and every cycle you'll learn and who left and and one of the things that I learned is to. You know when when we hope we went into the field in the Gloucester Bellwether. Right after the cry happened that the debate site after Coakley went to New Bedford and so there was this whole thing with fishermen and New Bedford and and you know some people suggested that the margin that big a margin is significantly. Less lost about. Boston right I got attacked a couple of techsters just suggested that while you were when you been talking yeah. Could could very well being and and you just can't control the timing of it but you do the press kit that's. Okay great day thanks a lot for all your help during the campaign and we appreciate it will be talking to you again. They clearly what was soft university in the Boston Herald.