Jul 12, 2012|
Jeff Mortimer, BNY Mellon Wealth Manangement's New Director of Investment Strategy on the Investing Climate.
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Forgot to mention that James in Rochester was the winner of our gas card in the first hour. And June is David giving away a coffee cart itself or should I say an ice copy -- When every wanna call it it's a copy -- fifteenth caller at triple 82052263. When you hear Will Ferrell. Okay you'll wind but not. Crossing golf cart I do this copy -- -- a all right. And Jeff Mortimer is not allowed to play Jeff how Mortimer is from bank in new York -- he's the wealth management's new director of investing strategy were to talk to about investing strategy good morning Jeff -- I'm well -- are you. Good good we're just talking about European investments and I guess my question to you. As an investment strategist. Would you advise people to start buying stocks in Europe at this juncture. We are we have currently on underweight. Two international investment at this point not in favor of domestic ones so I eight. We would -- advised again as your question pointed out that. There's probably a bit too early. Certainly though most investors still in the human living under a rock that things are. To have continued to date and a muddle through over there the economy continues to be weak and maybe getting weaker would -- in China. Even in the US. We're getting some mixed reports so. We had greater question about it -- a bit too early. But markets are adjusting and have adjusted and I was sort wanna bring up the point that. If you wait for it to get blue sky and sunny. Markets will move much higher in the interim so you have to. Sometimes get in when it's a little bit uncomfortable but we leave his state now is even too early for that. What gently when you look at the value of the Euro at 121 do you have a target for that do you are you. Is that part of your pricing model we'll say okay when the Euro gets to 115 we'll start buying Euro Stoxx and and can you tell us what your target prices for the Euro. We don't do. Those types of that type of precise work we certainly look at currencies as part of our return first especially primarily thrust -- domestic investors. But we don't look at -- -- that about bell will ring when the Euro it's 116 and and it's time to get in. You know would be the Euro for a suggests again that that is -- Of course interest rates differentials but also confidence in areas of of the world. And so they're the Euro may continue to be under pressure. You'll you'll see that it's really a signal for the strength of the European economy ministry that the European Union. And so deceit that continue to weaken is really consistent with our view again. That they may again model for New York. Might be a longer term six. And some people think and that the Euro. Dollar early -- is a reflection of that. You know many investors have made a lot of money in emerging markets a thing about people who but China stocks and you know Indian stocks twenty years ago they made a fortune doing that. When you look at the emerging markets weird do you think there are some good pricing opportunities where can investors go whether it's Brazil Argentina. You know China where we're gonna go where they can get bargains on these emerging market stocks. So we tend to be today if one is gonna play in that aspect class so we returned to recommend it to. I'd much more diversified approach been trying to dictate certain countries. -- -- time to invest in that country so we are much more. Sort of thematic top down investors there. Certainly there there is money to be made as you -- by stepping in at the right point assuming a lot of rescue. And then having the risk sort of work out or having the outcomes -- out in your favor. We are overweight as. As a strategy council to emerging markets. We think you're probably bumpy in the near term however as the world continues to sort out. How slow growth will be but again emerging markets lot of these. Stock market just that you I've alluded to have have reflected that in their pricing. But many being downed you know upwards -- you know 1520%. Year to date. So. Certainly for us. To begin nibbling the dollar cost average two to rebalance portfolios into making sure that you have exposure to emerging markets. Is there is a prudent thing to do it may not be comfortable. In some of these -- but over time when you look back five or ten years from now just as you said even mentioned at twenty year number. There we think investors will be well well rewarded for being an asset class which is. Which is growing which is -- Offering decent valuations at these levels and those two things and in conjunction usually lead to good long term returns. It give any concerns about a -- into recession next year in area I've I've im hearing fears that. You know 2013 could be not a double dip because we've been out of recession for -- would. -- think that the with the with all the headwinds we faced I'm talking about tax reform entitlement reform. -- glad things have to be done. Here in the United States bad the painful then lot of cuts have to be made taxes their party and Angela. Does that force us into recession next year. So we'll watching that very very closely and our view at this juncture. Is still a growth recession so naughty naughty define perception of you know to negative quarters and those types of things but. Slowing of growth which we may be in the deepest pain point you know as we sit here today -- On this summer doldrums this year again is playing out very similarly to 2010 and 2011. When growth begins to slow -- tentative in the summer with inventory build less demand all those types of things which take place. You as the Warren Buffett saying you know you don't know -- swimming naked until the tide goes out and as -- has growth begins to slow. You begin to see some of those issues they come more to the forefront. And we bring you into the fall and inventories depleted and things like that that you get a and another rebound. Because he's a -- also -- elections to come up in November to. On the fiscal cliff issues all affect you know -- may be different in the senate dot -- in other house. So there's just -- suggested it has are hard -- attention. But at this point we're still giving the benefit of the doubt to kind of a muddle through maybe a softer summer. But -- pick up again as happened last couple years. -- your doctor Arnold lips to God's ears let's hope so our grade. Thanks very much for joining us you are carried out thank you very much and it's Jeff Mortimer he's a strategist wealth and these new over -- bank in New York nobody's there. Director. Well management -- today on the financial exchange.