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Full Show 1-2-19

Jan 2, 2019|

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This is the financial exchange with the Barry Armstrong and sharks are down. You're exclusive look at business and financial news affecting your day you simply your world. Stay informed and up today about economic and market trends plus get breaking business news every day. And now the financial exchange with the Barry Armstrong and chuck Exxon. Stocks are selling off which is opposite of what we saw last week it is the first day's trading. In 2019. In the earth we re. Motivating factors for the stock sell off we will talk about them this morning hi everybody it's very truck with you here. Happy new year it is just it's so tough to keep track of the days struck at notes Wednesday but it feels like Monday or Thursday doesn't feel like a win. No idea it certainly doesn't but he is a Wednesday here and happy new year to all of our listeners by the way now that we are in 22019. I would like to point out that this is the year that the original movie blade runner was based on in the and obviously other world today looks a little bit different from the world envisioned by out author Philip K. Dick. But this is a disturb minded that near the future often isn't quite what to we expect to be so there's that. All right. Recently the president has taken meetings with large investors think about guys like Carl Icahn Warren Buffett. Rate Dahlia so the biggest hedge fund managers in the industry those meetings are coordinated by mr. Larry Kudlow. And we have learned that the president heard three consistent. Messages. During those meetings in all identify those three topics worried truck and we can talk about them he's the president was at. Highly recommended that he settled the trade dispute with that China. It was highly recommended that he stopped tweeting about general Powell and just leave the guy alone and do his job. And the third item that the president was referenced to try to do. Calm down would be capped he said so much turnover with his cabinet. Andy's ex cabinet members are out in the mix there. That now think about guys like Gary Cohn and Rex Tillerson. Our noted that he you know in and they may not be making large public speeches but they're talking to people. We're very influential in the making those investors nervous that is what the president hurt trade. Fed to act now the big question is will he adhere to those recommendations. Only way any man's guess. Yet that I think it's a legitimate question I think one of the issues the the Fed or start to that the China issue and it's somewhat out of his control. Because it takes two to tango there it's it's not something where he can just say I mean in theory you could just say OK don't wanna do this anymore and pivot away but. I think you and I know that's probably not going to happen. With the Fed and the cabinet I think those are things that are directly in control and so that's kind of work I'd place. My emphasis if I were the president just because. In dealing with China there's always so much that you can do you have another party that needs to be able to come to the table. And do you know deal with human and hopefully. You know give you some of the things that you want you give some of things they want you get a deal done. But with regards to the Fed and with regards to the cabinet I think those are issues that fall squarely on the presidential. But do you are you starting to get the impression debate based on what we are hearing for rumors he's starting to get the impression that China has come to the table in terms of making trade deal. Not really now that it's not really just because it's again their their incentive is not too. You know the US is governed largely at least for the last hundred years has been governed by. Consensus politics okay we need to make a deal that most of our politicians agree with in order for most people to vote those people and a support and so on so forced. China's politics or draft drastically different starting at the top where you have a president now US power for life and as such. He's not subject to the boot the whims of the electorate is not subject to the will of the people on a daily basis. And we tell you it is. You know Turkey's he gets a lot of pressure mean. That the then ruling all look works with in China don't you think they're putting pressure on him and saying hey we're losing money were exporting less our profits are down. Are our quality of life is decreasing we need you to work something out. That you don't you think he feels that pressure. Not really. As I think that destruction there is dramatically different I I think there is pressure that president G feels. But I think what is in this is again based on what I've read about him and how things are sent out for him. I think he feels a lot of pressure internally. To be successful at this this whole built in Rhode initiative in China 20/20 five simply because it represents to him. Kind of the capstone and his entire career and really the transformation of China into a world power. Under his leadership. So I think I think there's something very real there. The problem is that the built in Rhode initiative in China 20/20 five. They are drastically at odds with what the United States wants. And so I certainly. Eat yes the in order for them to hit their point 25 objection objective struck. They need the United States to consent to continue this consume their products and we're telling them no we dock and do that we're not gonna give your intellectual property who like different deals. And you know they so you can't get to 20/20 five it without a willing dance partner and we are not willing to dance with them. Nobody here's the thing like once once you go out the year but OK so let's say you go out a year and in tariffs have been imposed and so forth now. You've been your kind of working from that is your new baseline and it's OK really key here we go this is how our world is now so. Unless the US is prepared to continually ratchet things up. Month after month and year after year. It's not really something that adds pressure it's just OK here's the new world and here's what we got to deal you know that's that's is kind of how it is so. I I just I think when looking at this situation. At least in my opinion it's a mistake to say. Country X needs us more than we need that because it's not about that it's it's about how far they're willing to go. In how much pain they're willing to feel. Ian in this game of chicken that your playing here effectively. And I don't I can measure that. Now APAC I think we blinked in December when we gave them ninety days and so I suspect you're gonna get trade deal negotiated but it's not going to be very good one. In and I think you'll see that you know I would happen to be in a marked but I think you get a trade deal. We it's it's not a particularly good one but at least they're both parties can claim victory in and we move on. I think that's possible there's a deal to be had to but I don't think it's the one that the US wants. Right right that's sort of saying it and we blinked by giving them ninety days if we had invoked the tariffs things via the Dow might be down to a 3000 points. But at least they know we were serious we were not willing to take the pain. And I think that was a sign of weakness. Would what is interesting is at the same time you've seen that you've seen a couple different things with the US ramping tensions up with China potentially both with the arrest of the hallway CFO. And then you had the DOJ coming out. With the list of Chinese firms in nationals that were suspected of stealing intellectual property so. You know that there's there's some stuff there it is still suggest there's a ramp up happening and so it is it's really hard to get an accurate read on the situation at least in my book. We should do a quick review in just how bad when he eighteen was spurred investors to we have to. Well it'll right I don't think it was so bad I mean people elect if everything I read is like twenty team was a calamity well I got to Aaliyah. I've lived through work years that were much worse than when he eighteen and I'm sure were I will live. Through more years that are much worse that when he team I mean if 5% loss on the S&P 500 doesn't strike me. As a calamity. I think the problem at least as as IE look at it. Is that there was nowhere to hide you know was one of the years we say. G stocks were down bonds ropes at least we had somewhere to go wasn't something where you said gee stocks were down the Golden's way batters stocks were down oil was way. It was. Pretty much everything aside from cash was down like that they're they're almost nothing else that was up and I think that's what makes people feel they looked and they say. Gee my stocks were down my bonds were down my gold was down much oil was like everything was now. But the truck. How many years did we have absolutely fantastic growth mean we've been growing steadily since 2009 we had one year there was fifteen that was kind of a stinker of the year you know eleven and fifteen weren't great. Entity the other ones were unbelievable. They mean it just look at what you paid for stocks back in 20082009. If you held on to them. Your world today if you put a couple 100000 bucks into the stock market in 2009 it's close to a billion dollars to. Oh yeah it it in look it's something like this you see bear markets every 212 years in general. Okay you're gonna see a 10% correction every eighteen months this this is normal this this is not something where the sky is falling and as you know the world's never gonna recover. What that the reason that you want to own stocks is because they have volatility on the way up they can grow faster than the economy because companies can grow faster than 12 or 3% they can they can grow their sales rapidly. The downside though is if if you get the sense that the economy's slowing even if you're not heading into recession. It means that stocks might not be able to grow was quickly they might not be as profitable in icu will sell off in the short term it's it's not something where I think people need. To panic you never owned stocks again but it is something where I get why last year felt uncomfortable because people would say OK I'm gonna sell my stocks in go to bonds. And then bonds get hammered you know suits like it just felt like there was nowhere to hide that thing. They don't. One concern I have here even after we had that rally last week when the Santa Claus rally. And it looks like he could turn around today by the way who tell you we were down 400 points earlier. And we're down 300 now but it you know or know or early got a 157. To see that were nearly done 157 points up. The the thing that makes me a little bit nervous. Is the yield on the ten year treasury people are gobbling up that ten year treasury in droves it's down to two point 66% I wish Tucker were here as. I would tell him to go in and block out lock up four retreat right now. Yet did the one thing that's interest in there is the last couple treasury auctions haven't been particularly strong and so. While your having investors flocking to them is a safe haven now. You're not getting a whole lot of demand for new issuance and there's a whole bunch of debt that's coming over the next couple years that's just something that bears watching. As we go forward on this one. Do you think the Fed may be stopped selling off so many there are only inventory of treasuries cleared they slowdown in the pace of it we got mixed messages on that after the last fed meeting effectively Jay Powell said. They were gonna its all systems go we're gonna keep things moving I think the phrase used it was auto piloting that were pretty much gonna keep trimming the balance sheet. And then you had Williams come out a couple days later and said well we're we made you have read we reserve the right to revisit this as we go. So I think they're trying to thread a needle on this and part of it what's interesting everyone kind of looked at. I think people forget the other is there's nine governors who vote for. It was unanimous for a hike in December. And I will tell you though I I really think the president's gonna back off of Powell I think he heard that message loud and clear he said he used to cold. I categorically. Do not go after Jimmy Powell anymore. Will know heading into the next meeting. And others that policy does not much heightened. It does not much time before the next meeting at the gates was at first the last Wednesday in January I think it's the thirtieth. So we'll know within the next four weeks because it's coming off. It's CP can resume its common temptation. That coming up or take a look at the best and worst stocks have to when he eighteen unfortunately the list of worst stocks is much longer they'll list of best stocks. That is next on the financial exchange. Tony this very good charts graphs and numbers all day and just listen to us it's the financial exchange with Barry Armstrong and chunks of up on the financial exchange radio network. As we age long term care something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average cost of a private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year and then average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing home state when you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check. Pick up the phone and call the experts at Cushing Nolan at 8668485699. Pushing him Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their essence for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called planning for procrastinators. It'll look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer give your free guide today Michael and 8668485699. 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com there. Dirty suffered histories and are incorporated in SIPC and advisory service is up after she turns America by incorporated Gary Armstrong represented a strong advisory group and secure America companies are unaffiliated opportunity to secure is America to go to the legal or tax advice always seek the voice of a professionally with a loss in your state. Hi everybody it's very Armstrong and I'm joined today by executive vice president from leader bank mr. Jake tool and were talking about this account. Zuma rewards account and the thing that really caught my eye on this account is it's a savings account but sort of a god you guys are providing. Two point 05%. EPY. On that account how do you do. Yet it's one of our most popular. Retail banking products vary so. It's it checking and savings campaign Oka and if you qualify. You get some great reward so for example you're 2.0 5%. EP wise your savings account up 200000 dollars 100000. You get 1% cash back and all of beard he's suspending your debit card that's good. And you get a ATM reimbursements if you use in other things he Tia. And soda qualified by traveling in a Matta town there's not a leader bank branch nearby. I can use that ATM card number and be reimbursed the three dollars to order exactly. That in so the benefit of that is that really expands average network you know he's any damage. It doesn't have to be leader Bancorp and if you qualify it's pretty simple yet to have your direct deposit owned the bank at least 12100 a month for you need to use. You use you count at least ten transactions a month incentive for these statements oh. It's it's something that customers would do anyways using right now right yeah it's great benefits. And yet two point 05% annual percentage yield on your savings try finding that in another bank leader bank offers it. It's called Zuma rewards account paying two point 05% annual percentage yield on balances up to a 100000 dollars. To learn more call leader bank at 8776917. B 900 or visit them on line leader bank dot com. It's called Zuma rewards account ZEUGMA. 8776917. B 900. Securities offered to securities America income member Sandra SIPC and advisory services arbiters securities America advisors think Gary Armstrong representative Armstrong advisory group in the securities America companies are unaffiliated. Be a part of the financial exchange in an instant. By texting us and 63566. Start your extra keyword Barry and become a member of our brand new textbooks tell us what you think 24/7. Break here on the financial exchange radio network. Stocks were down in two when he team but sometimes. I think a person needs to take a step back. And look at it their investments do a little bit of perspective. The Dow was down five point 6% in twenty team but it was up 25%. In two when he seventeen. The NASDAQ was down three point 9% to twenty team but it was up 28%. In 217. And then finally the S&P was down six point 2% in when he eighteen but he also was up nineteen point 4% in 27 team. You know chuck one of the things that Kirsten and investors that. You know when he eighteen was a good year to be diversified because you had some stocks like IBM that were down tremendously. But he had when you look at the whole index it wasn't down. No I mean I know that it feels like things. Were worse than that just because of the pace I think it which. Gains evaporated people forget that that you know heading into October. Most indices had gains of anywhere from six to 12% on the and it and that just evaporated in a hurry so I know feels like the whole year was bad when in fact that wasn't necessarily the case. But if that there were pockets to hide in over the course. Of the year you had areas. That either held up decently were just didn't lose too much places like utilities were up half a percent. Health care was the best performing sector see adds in some significant gains there. But the areas that got you know rocked pretty good. Are the ones that tend to be and we we kind of highlight as the most volatile energy materials financials all down 15% or more. In the S&P 500. In those are areas that that you know. Frankly typically struggle in these kinds of environments that it's kind of what you would expect to see there so. It's it's not something where every stock was down a bit about two thirds of S&P stocks were down. Wearers in the Dallas it was almost 5050 I think. Yet thirteen out of the thirty Dow stocks were actually positive last year. But it was you know really a mixed bag in a lot of cases in some big names in particular in the tech sector really you know took a pounding at the end of the year. What they did energy and tech got hit pretty hard. When you look at two when he nineteen with gives you. Cause for optimism would you look at it this year and save yourself well you know this could be reason that stocks will actually rally in 22. Well I think that the big thing that I do come back to at this point is that valuations. Are actually pretty attractive in some sectors of the market in the broad market as a whole is increasingly overpriced right now so. It's it's not so much that I think we're gonna get some new growth story that opens up or something words wow look at all this you know excitement over this and that. Can I don't think you see anything like that coming in might just be the resolution of some of the problems we talked about. But to me it's just I look at it in the forward PE on the S&P 500 meaning. The the amount of money they're scheduled to make predicted to make over the next twelve months in the relationship with a price to that. Is really pretty attractive right now street stocks trading fourteen point two times their next twelve months earnings now despite the five year average for that is sixteen point four seat could make a case right now. It based on what we've seen over the last five years. Stocks might be five to 10% under priced at the all the. Problem news you can have instances where that fourteen number goes down to nine or ten and that's the you know if if things if investors get scared and it's it's all about sentiment right if investors say oh my gosh. Trucks right and they're not gonna work out a deal with China. Well back it really caused stocks to sell off more or if the president starts tweeting about Jay Powell again back its cost RP fired Jeep. Back to cause a major correction. So what I will tell investors is that when you have bubbles. When stocks really get inflated in price they tend to get overly inflated think about things like. Amazon's stock at 2100 think about bitcoin what would bitcoin gap to almost 20000. 20000 what's the net now like 3000 today in that ballpark like 3500 I think that's a good example football bulletin. You know bitcoin. You know like who in the heck paid 20004. Not me fortunately and in the other thing to keep in mind when we talk about something like the price to earnings ratio. That's based on projected earnings for the next twelve months if the owners either weaken or grow faster than expected. You could see changes in that number and so it's just something. It to keep in mind here and in part of this that part of the information that suggests that anything's might be a little weaker than expected. For the fourth quarter of 2018. And of all the S&P 500 companies 33 of them. Issued positive guidance saying hey things are gonna be stronger than we expected. 72 of them. Issued guidance saying things are gonna be worse than expected so. That's something that that does bear watching as companies which are near again yep they're really close to their own business when you own a business you know what's going on. There were twice as many companies last quarter. That said they expect things to be worsened when he nineteen than they expected big companies that said it would be better than expected. Ye in you wonder what the factors are that are influencing that opinion. You know yes it because of trade yeah because. You don't like if you're in the housing business and you believe the Fed is gonna raise interest rates four times you know that's really bad for house yeah naked. Yeah I think a lot of it depends on what is anticipated. In what actually curse. Coming up we're gonna have Wall Street watch Edwards talked about two companies that are making major moves today. Tesla shares were down for more than 10% earlier trading are they doing now will let you know we'll also take a look at Netflix. That doubt yes and he had been asked that it's all up next on the financial extra. Life goes on FaceBook and followers on Twitter. Show breaking business news is always burst right you on the financial exchange radio network. As we age long term care something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average customer private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year and an average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing home state when you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check. Pick up the phone and call the experts attrition Nolan at 8668485699. Cushing Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their essence for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called planning for procrastinators. And look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer give your free guide today by calling 8668485699. This 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com. 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Or zero rent dot net. 2018 sought a market reached new highs but they were short lived in the year ended with a thud as far as investors are concerned record growth in the stock market may be a fleeting thought as we head into Tony nineteenth so it's incumbent upon you to review your portfolio and your investment strategy hi this is very Armstrong and I can help I've got a brand new guide out this month that will review the ups and downs of the past year while providing you with information and assistance that you'll need as you strive to maintain your assets and see them grow this year's economic forecast is cloudy at best so called right now you can get your free copy of my new guide at 803934001. That's 803934001. Or download it right now at Armstrong advisory dot com. Security suffered through securities America incorporated members and SIPC and advisory services officer securities America advisors incorporated Barry Armstrong represented at Armstrong advisory group the securities America companies are unaffiliated representatives of securities America do not offer legal or tax advice always seek the advice of a professional familiar with the laws in your state. If you're real estate property management company you need -- banking partner that has all the right tools to keep your operation efficiently a bank is one of these premier banks in the property management and real estate space offering a suite of unique products and cash management services to help you collect rent managed Condo association payments -- digitize paper checks hi this is chuck is not a we'd bank utilizing state of the art technology to offer convenient banking services to which real estate clients such as a CH payments mobile banking promote check scanners and its innovative -- rent payment platform leader bank has a team of business bankers that are on call to help you -- come to your place of business to make it as easy as possible number to call your interest did is 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Find out why many of greater Boston's premier property management and real estate companies choose leader bank is they're banking partner call 8776917900. Or email BBO leader bank dot com for more information member FDIC equal housing one. In medieval times a sharp was often the difference between victory and defeat. For skiers and riders at Killington. The end point of pride and admiration. No matter your battlefield the more you prepare for more triumphant. Here's to living more life on the edge save up to 40% on lift tickets when you purchase an advance at Killington dot com. Tony team was a rocky year for stocks including nineteen in the same better. Worse the Armstrong advisory group has a new guide of this month called 2019 a look ahead in have you learned about what me in the market so turbulent and whether or not it can stay there to your free copy by calling 803934001. Or downloaded right now Armstrong advisory dot com securities are produced thirties America incorporated member finreg SAP C and advisory services are produced today's American advisors incorporated Barry Armstrong were presented at Armstrong advisory group in the securities America companies are unaffiliated. Street watch look at the market's performance so far today to marry him jog here on the financial exchange radio network. It's time now for Wall Street wants brought to you by a leader bank if you're in need of a purchase or refinance loan. We the bank has some of the most competitive rates in New England to dedicated loan officer worked with the if. In a local decision making means a faster closing call right now for more information. 8776917900. Or visit them online leader bank dot com member FDIC. So how bad is the story Tesla and their shares are down 29 dollars and I writ been missed on auto delivery struck. Yet they they've missed on their deliveries and they're also was a story out last week that they've got in and again I don't know the accuracy of this but because Tesla didn't comment. But there's also restored at the F 3000 vehicles in inventory that I guess they have not sold that's never have been a problem for them before. The the big thing with tests on the question that I've had in addition to you know whether or not they can produce these vehicles. I've always wondered if in F said this is going for his bad back is two years ago. Can they actually sell all the vehicles they want to me because even though that the cheap one now the model three. I think the cheapest version is in the what high forties I think somewhere in that ballpark so it's it's not cheap car and I know they're trying to get to 35000 with incentives. But it's it's not a cheap car and so part of me is always wondered look. People aren't buying sedans anymore and in any meaningful numbers. In they're not buying cars in that price range I've often wondered if they can sell all these vehicles. And that's a real issue for them if they're making 400000 a year but they can't Selma. That's a much of an excess inventory three house nobody ever had any bill. Diner they understand the the it it it's disconcerting gave the I think the bigger issue theirs have they done anything in terms of cost containment dizzy weak recovery story after story in terms of how many workers touch it test car yard how many workers touch GM car Volkswagen. Their labor costs were through the room. So anyway Tesla shares are down about 8% now Netflix shares also down they're down two and a half percent. And that's based on guidance as it relates to new subscribers as I understand. Yeah it's you know it's it's a question with any of these stocks that are based on growth. EEE it's always a question of can you be you know maintain what's what's allowed you to be successful in the past and in case this one. It you know they they've had questions the last couple quarters now I think I think it's going back to wood it was or July quarter a little bit weaker than expected also. And so I think with them. It's hate you know you take had a whole bunch of debt in order to finance your growth. You gonna need to take out more debt in order to do that and in this company that. You know I'd kind of pooh poohed the idea that they were in trouble couple years ago because they were growing so fast their profitable and so forth. But I'm start to get a little concerned now. I come from start to get a little bit concerned that it's building just because. I don't know what the business model is that lets them finally you achieve escape velocity from the cycle of more debt to grow ides I don't know what it is. You have company that is stocks down stocks trading at 260 dollars a share. And it's 52 week high just to. Put it in perspective post 52 week high on Netflix is 423. Dollars this year and right now it's trading to sixty so chuck you're not alone. Did you ride January effect I didn't know this but I guess it's a big thing in England. To not drink during the month of January in other words to abstain you have your New Year's Eve party and detectives are still people recovering from hang over for years eat today. But a lot of people in January are saying hey I'm not gonna drink at all and it will dry no alcohol consumption whatsoever during the month the game. I'm going to be doing this this your myself actually are yeah I am yeah I this is that it's the first year of ever tried it. And I thought about. He's doing like a dry lent one year but the problem is like March Madness in the Super Bowl tend overlap in one way or another and so that it's just not possible. But in January is not really anything exciting this year that's going on in January aside from Briggs negotiations which might make you want to. But so. I'm gonna try it this year because they they found a whole bunch of different health benefits anything from weight loss lower blood pressure in a lot of cases. People sleeping better more energy. And you know especially look my family tends to drink a decent amount of the holidays as most failed was probably Duchscherer and so. My wife and I were coming back dish day from mussina are Pham was in both those were kind of sit Hussein. Really happy and I can't drink anything for the next week or so and I was kind of like one of us extend that for a month and see how it goes on I'm hopping on board with the dry January actually. And would do what was the motivating factor BC I can't you read about the January effect before. So that ever heard about this before now for this story the big thing for me is it's actually somewhat sad on one level. I don't think I've been drive for a month since college. You know the if you don't why they'll if you look at all the medical studies there's a story in the Wall Street Journal today is actually yesterday by some body ready. And it it's pronounced. And they're just talking about the short term health benefits you know taking it dried junior would that tends to do track and upbeat durst senior partner for your case. When you don't drink in January you're drinking less in me. Then you were in May of the preceding year with all people studied. Does that make you more conscientious about how much alcohol you're actually consuming when you take an entire month off kind of like fast. You know people fast from food. Heard day then the other six days that they eat they're more conscientious about how much food they consumed or I guess the same principle applies to alcohol and even a cup. Years ago when when I went through my you know. You know it was the same thing I gave it used to be that was ordering stuff every day just in and I came back from that in the going ordered a couple things in like six months after just because I it's just stopped I'd kind of gotten away from that habit so was. It was kind of nice sum I'm gonna see if this goes and kind of see what happens with that. Our poll question today is do you abstain from drinking alcohol in the month of January. It's a new thing is this is something it it took off in Great Britain. And I guess it's starting to hit pockets of the United States that were curious as to how you weigh in on this. And whether or not you'll be taking the month of January off as or at least two alcohol consumption. One thing you might wanna do if you're doing game I'll give you a homework assignment truck. Read two or three different articles about the correlation between alcohol consumption and cancer. Oh just got all the new it's it had ever done that yet it doesn't make you feel very good. Now it featured as a you state. Laws going into effect at least here in Massachusetts that will be affecting your paycheck and the cost of your vacation it's on one hand I was pretty excited. Because the income tax rate goes from five point one down five points or 5%. But then he gets offset by the new heat family and medical leave program which is gonna take normally packed with. Yep pretty much that's again actually be bumping up a a higher tax there to point 3% tax that goes into effect on July 1. And that is a state payroll tax that is going into effects that's going to be paid. Pretty much at the pocket when it's all said and done every employer and employees can be on the hook for them out there. So that's something that's gonna make things a little bit more expensive for employers and employees. Minimum wage in Massachusetts goes from eleven dollars to twelve an hour and for tipped wages. For 375. To 435. So both of those are moving up. The part that stood out to me actually. That I thought was particularly interest staying. Was I didn't realize this tax holiday was going to be an annual thing. Yeah out they passed that it's a and I think that's of the statement that's you know. Just my opinion what makes you think it's a mistake book as people we're gonna play important exactly like it's it's. January let's say your wife comes to Ian says honey wanna get new washer dryer right well all you're gonna do is say you've got a note you've got an excuse to wait till August. Or do you think about you know buying a Villa at anything big you know whether it's TV refrigerate anything like that you can sit there and say okay. Why don't you just wait till then specially in as the real potential slowing business in June and July you know because it's like why don't we just wait another month. He now or would it does either it's even worse for Massachusetts retailers is somebody says hey can we worry your brother's truck and drive the natural. Oh yeah. You know we have like why not why not elect why not have a tax holiday every weekend rated the date that that because that's the impact test yes figure out a way. It I have to pay an extra 6% for the fight for your brother's truck and I go to Nashville had not been that. So I am also curious to see. How would the the new family medical leave program ends up working out. Just because if it somewhat of a new experiment for this state. But pretty much what it does it allows workers up to twelve weeks of paid leave to care for a new child in twenty weeks. If they or family member of a serious illness and injury has being paid for by that new state payroll tax. And and so it's it's complicated in terms of how much different families in different. Employers in the perceiving from an order cover for you know different things but I'm curious to see how it ends up actually working out when it's all said and done. They have to administer the cost of administration is very high you know the money comes out your paycheck 'cause you're the employee but it also comes out of your employer's check you right to appeal though realizes. Ethel accosted me it sear the employee you price chart when you get your pay check you'll say. They Ding me for about four bucks you write and say OK well you know that's not that bad well the employers in the four bucks do. It's that was the the other side. Time and a half per Sunday I remember this when I was in college and would get time and half I worked on Sunday that's dropping to time in four tenths. Today and then it going all the way down to the regular time you don't get paid any over I'm for working Sundays beginning in 221 victory. Yeah and that's kind of offsetting at least partially some of the higher minimum wages that are coming through. This back back when I was first were my first job and I was cashiers supermarket. I I used to seek out Sunday's because it was time and and so it was something I actually looked for that now won't be there Ian in a couple years actually. All right coming up British talk about National Grid workers. How do you feel about paying for their health insurance well we'll talk about it 'cause you are paying port that's next on the financial. Does this and start talking to build. I know you're portfolio includes the financial exchange with Barry Armstrong and chuck signed off on the financial exchange radio network. -- the calendar has turned and a New Year's here after the way the market ended in 2018 we may not want to look back but in addition to reviewing what was it's also time to look ahead hi this is bear strong and I'd like to ask you to also reflect on your financial well being and your investment strategy as we head into 2019 the markets are still volatile many believe the economy is slowing and were on the brink of a recession trade with China continues to be an issue so what does 2019 hold for us Everett a brand new guy they'll help you look back on the roller coaster year while providing you with guidance to keep your portfolio strong and growing it's called the 2018 your review and 2019 forecast and you can get your free copy by calling 803934001. That's 803934001. Or download it right now at Armstrong advisory dot com. Dirty suffered mysteries are incorporated in as the BC an advisory service as the protestors are -- corporate barriers are represented a strong advisory group and secure America companies or an affiliated representatives to America to go to the legal tax advice always acutely some professionally with the laws in your state. As we age long term care or something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average customer private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year and an average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing home state when you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check. Pick up the phone and call the experts at Cushing Nolan at 8668485699. Pushing him Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their assets for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called planning for procrastinators. It'll look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer give your free guide today Michael and 8668485699. This 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com or. All trying to think outside the box when it comes to giving gifts for special occasions so this year I'd encourage you to call leader bank you can visit all leader bank locations from Arlington to the seaport in Boston and they've got one ounce. And 110 ounce silver and gold bullion coins that all their locations and other precious metals are available upon request these types of purchases can be as Smart investment in addition to being a great gift for someone you love cult leader bank today at 8776917900. And learn more about its precious metal collection. By your coins in the branch and get them gift wrapped right then and there get a head start on your holiday shopping cult right now 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Or visit them online a leader bank dot com for more information not a deposit not FDIC insured uninsured by any federal government agency on guaranteed by the bank and may go down in value leader back a step ahead. Hi this is Barry Armstrong and I've been doing business with leader bank for many years it's not too late to get a great rate on home mortgage meter bank specializes in a wide variety of purchase and refinance loans at some of the most competitive rates in New England. A dedicated loan officer will work with you every step of the way and their local decision making means a faster closing we're bank is the number one purchase slender among banks in the state they have sixty loan officers throughout Massachusetts Connecticut and Florida who are ready to help you find the best solution for your mortgage needs at some of the best rates around call 8776917900. That's 8776917900. And get your great rate on home mortgage call now and they'll mail you a free residential mortgage survival guide detailing the home buying process from pre approval to the closing 8776917900. Is the number to call or visit them online at leader bank dot com. Or FDIC equal housing lender MLS number 449250. Subject to credit approval leader bank a step ahead. It's our daily poll question had financial exchange showed Doug John. Vote your conscience there are just vote go to financial exchange oh does come in castaway. Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker signed legislation on Monday that would extend unemployment insurance benefits. For about 1250. Union workers at National Grid who have been walked out of their jobs since late June amid a contract dispute. But he healed up that truck. I have mixed feelings on and on on one hand you know I have an awful lot of sympathy for these workers who are locked out. I don't know we're finally necessarily that the precedent of extending unemployment benefits just for one specific group of workers on the does that make sense if. It's I I have no problem with them being. Lockdown but he AD the lockout is of their own choosing meaning it. Maybe they don't like the wage contract that they are offered yeah that contract that they are offered by National Grid and they said we're not gonna work for them. What I object to is. Which Charlie Baker signs that says well I'm gonna extend their benefits what he should be saying is we. Are going to extend their benefits we'd be the taxpayers of Massachusetts as were the ones that are getting stuck paying for this. And you know it's a free market if you go like. If if if if Matt does Mike worked at the board for the job that we're paying about. Producing our show that he's free to work somewhere else and just as you are just as I don't go my role. We're we're we're all religions. Of the world free agents where we we all. Have the right but it shouldn't be subsidized. By the coddle that I think Charlie Baker. It this is something that you know. Martha Coakley year Deval Patrick would dot day dot what you expect out of a conservative governor. By I think that the big thing is just you know what's what's the threshold for. Doing this in the future you know what where where is it that this is an asset to like this is lower slope there's no clearly drawn line here and so. You know I I just wonder. Why is this situation different from some of the others you know that would we've seen out there. And and I just I have not gotten a good answer on that in this case. Now our poll question today by the way folks is do you abstain from drinking alcohol in January 18 point 7% of you are saying yes I'm going to have stayed. 81% are saying no and keep her in January. What do talk about the mortgage process the the other night I was talking to my son who's interested in buying his first home. If he was asking me questions about. Gee you know how I select the bank it would kind of mortgage Baghdad doing you know if I get a five year adjustable mortgage or thirty year fixed mortgage what about fifteen year fixed wars and like to be victory after fifteen years. That he's asking me about well you know what I find a house I wanna buy. Do I get it inspected to have my uncle Hank come over take a look at lake be there's so many questions that come up with the home buying process. And there's a lot of banks that want your business this capacity. But what I what values are only one day. That will give you a three residential mortgage survival guide in the details the process of buying a hole from pre approval. All the way to the closing. It's a really good guy it was written by reference liter bag. And they are making it available to you free of charge so if you're like me and you have a 25 year old son Hussein. Hey dad I have taken up by house do yourself a favor. Call and word of the guide for him more call get the guy after softening give it to your son because what's gonna happen is I promise you. You ask you questions that you do the answer to back in 1988 when you buy your first house that you don't know the answer to it today in the year when he nineteenth. Called leader bank and they'll send you the whole buying. Mortgage survival guide it's called the residential mortgage survival guide you call toll free number I'll give it. It's 8776917900. Tell them your friend of mine and you want the residential. Mortgage survival guide I'm telling you this is gonna really help your kids in the spring when they walked by that first home 877. 6917900. By the way. I called I ordered one for my 25 year old. And you use it to his benefit and it'll help him and it takes the onus off of me I don't I don't have to worry about gee did I give the right advice as you know they're gonna remember if you tell some wrong they're gonna remember. Called leader bank and get their residential mortgage survival guide 8776917900. Peter bank is a member FTS see there are equal housing lenders they're an analyst number 449250. Mortgage loans are subject to credit approval leader bank he stepped ahead. Chipotle had a pretty good year under their new CEO. I don't know how much of the credit he really deserves them what is your thoughts. Yeah it is it's one of those cases where the stock rallied. Almost 50% over the course of the year but I think part of this is due simply to how far the company had fallen in 2016 and 2017. And there is near somewhat of a natural rebound that probably should have happened. But I do think. That there is something to be said for at least supplying you qualified in incapable leadership. For the company because if this was a company that was reeling from a number of different health scares you know they've had. I think the first one was the and a 2015 they continued for about a year or so. And so they didn't need someone to come in and say OK we need to make sure first and foremost that we don't have these same types of problems again. In I think to his credit. He didn't have the same kinds of problems. Well eat the you know part of it was it was a founder of led company. Yup the end. It's always tough to get rid of the founder you know in and it's it is easy to pick I'd been there I think thirty years. Leading to believe from. You know one restaurant all the way up to where they are today. They did have another health scare over the weekend early saw this guy from all the Massachusetts. Bit into a burrito. And it's this August chipotle and nibbled on to lead middle nail that would kind of turned me off. Yet it's not really something that you want to bite into. You know it's if it's not something that's particularly appetizing. So you'd you would hope that that's kind of just a one off thing and it probably seems like it is never kind of happened anemic thought. I don't think if I happen to me anyway you know it is the first story of ever Bret actually about someone biting into a nailed a fast food place you've heard about all kinds of other things that fast food places. You know we used to. Dimes and Nickels in our birthday but that's the story for yes. The Dow is only down 97 points a sale pleases me because it was down 400 points just an hour ago this is actually pretty good his vote. We'll be back with more on the financial exchange it's the first day of trading how lit it up. I don't know what will be here to talk to about it for another hour it's very chuck. And that on the financial state. It's not too late to get a great grade and home mortgage leader bank specializes in a wide variety of purchase and refinance loans at some of the most competitive rates in New England a dedicated loan officer will work with you every step of the way and their local decision making means a faster closing call lead 776917900. That's 8776917900. Or visit leader banks dot com member FDIC equal housing lender. And MLS number 449250. Subject to credit approval leader bank a step ahead as we age long term care or something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average customer private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year than average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing home state and you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check. Pick up the phone and called experts at Cushing Nolan at 8668485699. Pushing him Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their essence for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called claiming for procrastinators. It'll look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer give your free guide today by calling 866848569. Time that's 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com. Hi this is Barry Armstrong and I've been doing business with leader bank for many years it's not too late to get a great rate on home mortgage meter bank specializes in a wide variety of purchase and refinance loans at some of the most competitive rates in New England. A dedicated loan officer will work with you every step of the way and their local decision making music faster closing we're bank is the number one purchase wonder among banks in the state they have sixty loan officers throughout Massachusetts Connecticut and Florida who were ready to help you find the best solution for your mortgage needs at some of the best rates around call 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Thing get your great rate on home mortgage call now and they'll mail you a free residential mortgage survival guide detailing the home buying process from pre approval to the closing 8776917900. Is the number to call or visit them online at leader bank dot com. FDI CU equal housing lender MLS number 449250. Subject to credit approval leader bank a step ahead. He's the money matters radio network WB MW Lemmon William and W 275 CM FM good Boston the money matters radio network. Hi this is chuck and Mike from the financial exchange is we start off 2019. I think if first make sense Mike to look back a bit at 2018 and talk about some of the big themes that we saw. That move markets create a couple big dips to 10% dips over the course of the year. What caused the more key factors. And just have the ability to add more volatility into both the bond and stock market it definitely saw that 2008. Mike what are the big things this had an impact a particular in the second half of the years the trade conflict between the US and China how do you see that continuing. To affect markets as we move deeper in the 2019. Yeah I mean huge huge issue for a second half eighteen really added a lot of volatility in markets then and certainly it's going to spill over 2009 team. When we look ahead here my personal views on it is I think that we probably get something on on the US China trade deal. Before the end of the year present don't think the president trump once you head into a re election season with eight giant economic headwind. Looming over so that's my personal view but it's really tough to tell folks there. Is a lot to look at heading into the new year and so we did put together a brand new guide titled looking ahead to 2019. It's free to get in only have to do is go to Armstrong advisory dot com once again the guide is titled looking ahead to 2019. It doesn't cost you anything to get it in you can download for free at Armstrong advisory dot com. Securities offered to securities America incorporated member finreg SIPC and advisory services are for the securities America advisors incorporated Barry Armstrong representative Armstrong advisory group in the securities America companies are unaffiliated. 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Used to living more life on the edge save up to 40% on lift tickets when you purchase an advance at Killington dot com. 2018 sought a market reached new highs but they were short lived in the year ended with a thud as far as investors are concerned record growth in the stock market may be a fleeting thought as we head into Tony nineteenth so it's incumbent upon you to review your portfolio and your investment strategy hi this is very Armstrong and I can help I've got a brand new guide out this month that will review the ups and downs of the past year while providing you with information and assistance that you'll need as you strive to maintain your assets and see them grow this year's economic forecast is cloudy at best so call right now you can get your free copy of my new guide at 803934001. That's 803934001. Or download it right now at Armstrong advisory dot. Come securities offered to securities America incorporated members in SIPC and advisory services offered to securities America advisors incorporated Barry Armstrong represented a strong advisory group the securities America companies or an affiliated representatives of securities America do not offer legal or tax advice always seek the advice of a professional familiar with the laws in your state were. All trying to think outside the box when it comes to giving gifts for special occasions so this year I'd encourage you to call leader bank you can visit all leader bank locations from Arlington to the seaport in Boston and they've got one ounce. And 110 ounce silver and gold bullion coins that all their locations and other precious metals are available upon request these types of purchases can be as Smart investment in addition to being a great gift for someone you love cult leader bank today at 8776917900. And learn more about its precious metal collection by your coins in the branch and get them gift wrapped right then and there get a head start on your holiday shopping call right now 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Or visit them online a leader bank dot com for more information not a deposit not FDIC insured uninsured by any federal government agency on guaranteed by the bank and may go down in value leader bank. A step ahead it's pretty hard to find a bank that as a checking and savings account that can provide a decent return and if you're in the market for one I've got to deal that you're gonna wanna check out tie this is very Armstrong and I've been doing business with leader bank for many years so if you're in need of a bank with great rates on checking and savings accounts look no further than leader banks Zuma rewards account qualifying customers will receive 1% back on debit charges 10% back at featured businesses no minimum balances required and no monthly fees but that's not all leader banks zug will rewards account has a two point 05%. Annual percentage yield if you're searching for great -- it's time to call leader bank at 8776917900. In addition you'll receive a free information packet featuring a guide to Zuma businesses that number again is 8776917900. Or visit them online at -- bank dot com. Minimum deposit to opener annual percentage yield is ten dollars to 23% interest rate messrs. insulate these reduce earnings re subject to change without notice leader bank a step ahead member of the icy. In new. This is the financial exchange with Barry Armstrong and chuck sound. You're exclusive look at business and financial news affecting your day you're sick leave your world. Stay informed and up today about economic and market trends plus get breaking business news every day. And now the financial exchange with the very Armstrong and chuck son. Stocks finished the year strong three days in a row going into the new year things look pretty good. Today however we opened up negative by about 400 points we're now down. 202. Points hi everybody it's very sharp with you here on the first day of trading. In 2019. You know I keep hearing truck all of the body to it was a terrible year for investing I guess it was a bad here Friday night. 888 I don't look at being downloads Rosie S&P down 6%. Last year yeah I was some more red be six point 62 point 20 yeah. I mean that's that's nothing it compared EO if you look at the previous years up 20% so I I I I think at days like this. You need to have some perspective and say to yourself OK yeah I buy I lost money last year. That doesn't mean you're gonna lose money again in 2019 markets are lumpy you know 2017 was a terrific here probate 20% of your money in seventeen. Well maybe you lost five or 6% of that gain. In 22 that's the problem isn't track you know you you make 20% in your money in your million dollar or pollute becomes a million to. And then the next year you lose 6% and it becomes a billion won forty. While you you still feel like you lost it in here down in the dumps that use the fact of the matter is still a lot over by your third time. On and I think also it it it feels worse because it wasn't just a gradual 4% dip over the course of the year you know wasn't OGL lost 1% a quarter for you know four quarters. It was. They markets were actually up BO six to 12% by the end of September. And then just completely fell apart over the last three months and so wit it it feels. Worse because of that also but that's how markets correct they don't do would gradually. If it's you know that you never look at a chart and say. G the market went down 5% a year for five years and that's how lost 30% you'd like that that's never how happens markets. Crash because investors don't wanna be the one holding the bag and then eventually they find a level where enough people want to buy and send it starts to return. And in markets rally but it's it's never a peaceful slow dip on the way down it's always. Ugly. President trump. On Christmas day of course was a cheerleader for the stock market and saying that things had been oversold it turns out he was clear point because it went up for three days in a row. His comments on Christmas they were made after having had meetings with large hedge fund managers at the bequest of where Kudlow. In those hedge fund manager suggested. To the president nobody tells the president and they suggested to the president. That he back off of and big investors feel that he's very confident that he'll do the right things so that was one thing it was suggested the president and other items suggested to the president was. Back off of calling himself the tariff king and work at a trade deal with China and then the third item has to do with his cabinet in strongly suggested to the president. That he try to stabilize his cabinet he's had I think five high level departures truck. And that makes investors nervous especially when those departures are speaking disparagingly. Of the press. What do I think the other thing that. I think spooked markets to a certain extent over the last couple weeks. Was the of this strange call that Steve minutia and had with banks. Seemingly out of nowhere saying oh Lago wanna have this called in and insure banks that you know there's enough liquidity. When no one was worried about liquidity problems before seats and they're going. They know something that we don't like should now worried about liquidity like it it that's what it does when something comes out of nowhere like that it's lake. You know you you just. Think there was some concern the end of the year that. They've what what's going on here what's what's actually happening. I actually think Steve minutia of rugby on some time in the first six months this year I think the president it's nickel after Powell. But he can't fire minutia and I wouldn't be surprised to Steve and Lucian has gone by June 30 Yemeni thoughts on the he. He's been more involved and I thought he would be in at least he's name is popping up a lot more in the China negotiations than you would typically see for me Treasury Secretary you know. Treasuries not typically very involved in it in something along those lines unless there's a currency component too and so. Part of me looks at that says okay that does that mean that there's more rate currency component to these negotiations. And if so. I think he needs to be there until they're concluded so if their dawn in the next three months. And yet I think you could see an exit. If they drag on I think he might be stuck there for a little while. You know me I came across a statistic that I wanna share with you. In 1975. Between the years of 1975. And 2014. The number of defined benefit pension plans in the private sector fell. By 57%. While the number of defined contribution plans increased by 208% what does that mean. Well defined benefit pension plan is where you retire. At age 65 or whatever age. From the company you work for. And they give you a check every month and you don't get a pen they you know it'll zombie just get a a monthly pension from that old employer. That's that's a defined benefit plan. We over the last since 1975. Corporations have moved away from those in need to defined contribution plans and now. Defined contribution plans that the norm. And defined benefit plans are. Scarce. Yeah I mean it effectively. How how many how many big companies even Kerry pension plans for. Their employer their employees anymore it's that there are some epic Raytheon still has one. It's you know some of the defense contractors do some of the the utilities might the Telecom still up some workers on those plans. But by and large you know aside from the municipal workers who in a lot of cases are covered by pension plans and that includes anyone from I'm. In municipal workers and including yet teachers firefighters policeman is well in there. But aside from those is it really is not something that's offered at any significant level in the big reason why is. If you offer one of those pension plans you are responsible as the employer. For making sure they have the proper level funding whether that's through your payments through employee payments in there you're responsible for the funding and so pretty much every employers said. Hey we don't want to be responsible for funding your retirement anymore it's it's something that creates an additional burden forests and as such we're gonna pass off to the employees instead. That's why you see the rise of these defined contribution plans like 401 k.s for a three b.s IRAs and all those types things. While to that end we should talk about a few things that you can do in the new year many of you make financial resolutions on January 1 it's only January 2 so we've got a few for you. Make sure you have an emergency fund you know leave vast majority of the country 40% of adults said they were faced with an unexpected expense of 400 dollars. They would either not be able to pay for it would have to borrow money or sell something to cover that is a site that that's a travesty. So if you're operating house holder just if your single live and on your world. Make sure you've got six months of living expenses tucked away in cash counted forget that you have it don't use that some money you spend that's your emergency fund. Budget yesterday it used truck it's it's so important that you know if especially here you're newlywed. In any of sit down at the beginning of the year in and set out a budget how much are we gonna spend on housing how much are we gonna spend on restaurants how much are we spend on vacations through budgeting so darn important. It is and there's different ways to do it to us as example I don't budget every different line item. So why don't say this much for this category. But absolutely say hey here's my it might drop dead number that I can't spend more than even this month. And so I know a bit this is where I need to be if I have extra spending in one area. I've got to cut something else back otherwise it's not working. Well the good thing about budgeting is you can say to yourself okay. Part of our budget has to have money going into our forward gave up. An absolutely that's just you know top line budget item if you do that I think you're going to be. In perfect shape. Another thing you want to do and get in the habit of doing this in twenty team pay off or putting nineteen. Pay off your credit cards each month. Don't carry a bow out I IC. You know people say while multi carrier for underdog ballots. And that night I showed us it will look what it's costing you carry that 400 dollar bounces it's astounding just with the interest costs are when you carry a balance and credit card. Well the big thing there's that's a really big step I think for a lot of people towards them being able to saving and let's use the example just of you know something like a 500 dollar balance on a credit card. At 20% interest in that means if you got that out for the whole year you paying a hundred dollars and interest over the course of the year. If you get rid of that balance. That extra hundred dollars acme money that you used then to start your emergency fund instead it's to you know it's it's it's kind of this this cycle where hey if you get out of this the habit. Of paying you know interest on debt that you're just kind of you keeping out their perpetually. Get away from that and start using the money that would have gone towards that interest users towards building up that emergency funds that. The other thing you'll lower truck is if you ever looked dead average credit card balances are median credit card belts they're high they're not 500 dollar know they're like 8000. Yeah so that we would do the math on 20% of 8000 dollars dep 16100 bucks a year. Good thing is if you're an empty gesture or if you got adult children. You know often times I feel like we're being used as an ATM. And I was like archive. Well now you know where were really dot we we came to the conclusion we we talked over kids individually about it and and we talk about collectively as a family it looked. You know we helped educate you. We help you through college we've provided you with housing. Get out of our house we're changing the locks and don't come dust to borrow money anymore and you know what maybe it's the the five of them. Kind of talk among each other and they say gee we can't we can't borrow money from mom and dad anymore its actually its great the peak peak your self policing. Meaning if they're not coming to us because they have to be embarrassed in front of their siblings. Or it in in the big thing is you know the the goal is to be able to have kids that are able to operate independently once you're gone because eventually all of us are going to be gone. And so the goal was look if if all that you do as a parent. Is give your kid money whenever they need them whenever they need it. You're not really. Teaching them the tools to be successful on their own because they've always come to you so. Yet there they fall on their face they're gonna be a Ghost Squad and in borrow more than they should at one point. You hope that it's at a level where it's it's it's a solvable problem but they have to make those mistakes in order to learn how to not make them in the future. They coming up will be playing trivia in the topic of trivia. He is former president Ronald Reagan trivia is up next on the financial exchange one share. Go for everything business and finance it's the financial exchange with Barry Armstrong and chunks on the financial exchange rate he'll never. Work the calendar has turned in a New Year's here after the way the market ended in 2018 we may not want to look back but in addition to reviewing what was it's also time to look ahead hi this is bear strong and I'd like to ask you to also reflect on your financial well being and your investment strategy as we head into the 2019 the markets are still volatile many believe the economy is slowing and were on the brink of a recession trade with China continues to be an issue so what does 2019 hold for us Everett a brand new guy they'll help you look back on the roller coaster year while providing you with guidance to keep your portfolio strong and growing it's called the 2018 your review and between nineteen forecast and you can get your free copy by calling 803934001. That's 803934001. Or download it right now at Armstrong advisory dot com. Dirty suffered mysteries are incorporated and as a BC and advisory service as the protestors are devices incorporated Gary Armstrong represented a strong advisory group and secure America companies or an affiliated representatives is America to go to the legal tax advice always acutely so professionally with the laws in your state. As we age long term care or something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average customer private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year than average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing homes today and you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check. Pick up the phone and called experts at Cushing Nolan at 8668485699. Pushing him Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their assets for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called claiming for procrastinators. And look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer give your free dying today by calling 866848569. Time that's 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com. Hi this is very Armstrong and I've been doing business with leader bank for many years it's not too late to get a great rate on home mortgage meter bank specializes in a wide variety of purchase and refinance loans at some of the most competitive rates in New England. A dedicated loan officer will work with you every step of the way and their local decision making music faster closing we're bank is the number one purchase slender among banks in the state they have sixty loan officers throughout Massachusetts Connecticut and Florida who were ready to help you find the best solution for your mortgage needs at some of the best rates around call 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Thing get your great rate on home mortgage call now and they'll mail you a free residential mortgage survival guide detailing the home buying process from pre approval to the closing 8776917900. Is the number to call or visit them online at leader bank dot com. FDIC equal housing lender MLS number four corner on two -- here are subject to credit approval leader bank a step ahead if you're real estate property management company you need -- banking partner that has all the right tools to keep your operation -- -- bank is one of -- premier banks in the property management and real estate space offering a suite of unique products and cash management services to help you collect -- managed Condo association payments in digitize paper checks hi this is -- is not we'd bank utilizes state of the art technology to offer convenient banking services to which real estate clients such as a CH payments mobile banking promote check scanners in its innovative -- rent payment platform leader bank has a team of business bankers that are on -- help you know come to your place of business to make it as easy as possible number to call your interest did is 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Find out why many of greater Boston's premier property management and real estate companies choose leader bank is they're banking partner call 8776917900. Or email BBO leader bank dot com for more information member FDIC equal housing one. The financial exchange. Is Cole a brutal England and also now in West Palm Beach, Florida. Check out our website at financial exchange showed Doug come and find the station closest to you. This is the financial exchange radio network. Over the weekend. President Donald Trump took meetings with the large investors big institutional investors that he asked them. What do I need to do to stabilize the investing markets three messages he heard work one. Shut up about Jay Powell he's a good and we Malone. To work something out on trade with China and three stopped firing your cabinet members because you're speaking disparagingly view. As to whether or not he listened to that I don't know the answer but I can't tell you that the gap has turned positive the Dow's up thirteen points the S&P is up three points. The NASDAQ is up 26 point wouldn't change of events solely been an hour and a half truck and were already here a couple of hours Austin and we're now positive there. You'll see that holds up into the afternoon. Levy we saw this a lot last week you would double the uttered a how mature watch in the markets last week it was piled neatly it was all over the place you know. You had days where they finished up. 500 points when they were down 600 between big swings in markets costly. What I'm really curious to see is were about two weeks away from earning season kicking off. L and I'm really interested to see what companies are actually saying about the fourth quarter. Because you know we we we've seen you know economic data and we've seen markets moving we've seen speculation. I wanna see what companies are actually telling us about their business is the fourth quarters is where you markets started to fall apart and so I wanna see what companies are saying pay especially you know companies that more of rely on debt to finance. Purchases of their products so housing related companies auto related companies. I wanna see if they are seeing an impact in that quarter. Is that really gonna tell me a lot about where things are actually you going over the next couple quarters in this economy let me know how you're handling the fact. That financially people don't feel as stable as they did ninety days ago. Well they may not that truck would do it was the last time we had an unemployment rate this low and we've got steady job growth you've got a wages are high here or at least they're stabilizing and going at a rate of 34%. You keep for reading about worker shortages. I like I I I the you know being an economy what do we 70% consumer driven 70% of our economy is based on the American consumer. It is and and I think the big thing though is it and I always come back to this it's all relative to how was before. How strong the economy is tomorrow it doesn't matter if unemployment. Giving example. Let's say that were sitting here back in 2011. And we get an unemployment rate reading of three point 9%. We'd say gee unemployment dropped from 8% to three point nine to you know that that's gonna be a real boost for the economy things are looking good. If we go from 37239. Today advocates it's still low by historical standards the world isn't ending. But trend if you're company saying gee there's more unemployed people today than they are yet then there were yesterday. You're saying hey I might not be able to sell as many widgets tomorrow. As I used to be able to now it's probably not gonna be a permanent shift in stock and be something that causes you know meaningful change everywhere but in certain areas. You might see companies that pay even though they're still selling a whole lot of widgets. Might not be sound quite as many as last year. And it's finally that that happens occasionally that's that's supposed to happen in economies from time to time if everything were always good. And how do you ever get rid about companies like pat how do you ever get rid of companies that shouldn't be there so you need to have every now and then to weed out companies that art action actually creating value in the economy and this is. This kind of how it happens. We play trivia every day here on the financial exchange and trivia sponsored by the Armstrong advised her. 52 years ago today famous actor and future president Ronald Reagan was sworn in as governor of California will be asking trivia questions about Ronald Reagan. Before he ran for governor of California. Ronald Reagan gained national attention in his speeches for which. Presidential. Candidate and you have to know your Ronald Reagan history you know the answer that question. Our text number is 63566. And we will select a winner among the correct answers that we receive remember my first name is Barry in yet to put that in. It's Barry then 63566. And then the correct answer. To that question which is before he ran for governor of California. Ronald Reagan gained national attention in his speeches for which presidential candidate. The correct answer will Whitney fifty dollar. Gift certificate that he could use towards buying gasoline any racial like 63566. Again is the text number. Let's talk about the government shut down it seems to be some confusion as to how many employees are impacted in which departments are impacted to some financial data frankly. Hasn't been coming out because of the shut them. Yet and so it's it's been challenging to kind of sort through what's open and what isn't and who's working but not getting paid and who's working but getting paid actually. The breakdown is you've got 420000. Federal employees. That are working with Al pay at this point. In additional 380000. Employees have been placed on unpaid leave or furlough at this point so there's about 800000 federal workers that are affected. Completely. EPA as an example ran out of money over the weekend. The Federal Trade Commission is closed the Coast Guard somehow found enough money its budget to make one last pay Peary and at the end of the year but they're not sure if they're going to be able to make their next pay period. You've got parks that are open to visitors but auto workers or stop at stop providing services and in a couple parts. Texaco's are really bad problems has restrooms are being cleaned and so people are just going to the bathroom in the middle of the park which is. Really the best thing to do in the middle the national park. So you've got a whole bunch of things that are moving on it's there there are any essential services that have been disrupted to this point what does that mean. For example I flew over yesterday I came back from holdings. I didn't have any trouble getting through security the TSA was still working and so forth that yeah those were still out that it they're still working at this point. But you look at some of the things that may start to happen going forward I'll give you an example. Some of the companies that work for. That that are involved in the housing sector okay. Aren't necessarily operating going forward if their budgets can't be squared away so. Things like the FHA where a lot of mortgages goes through might not be able to operate to process applications. They do it that's where you start having real impacts on the economy to this point. It has really been anything. Some of the workers that the contractors they're not and no limit for 4000 will get money. And basically they'll get paid for not working. But the contractors. You know be there they're not getting paid at all hate come back coming back lot the answer toward trivia question. We'll also talk about what drug makers are doing the prices. Drives alive on FaceBook so make sure to like your page and watched the guys break down the latest on the market every day beginning at ten on the financial exchange radio network. For those of us with older parents the idea of having to move one of them to a nursing home can be a scary thought indeed the New England according to Genworth the average yearly cost of a private room is almost 135000. Dollars that number is expected to be increased by 25%. By the year 20/20 eight think about paying over 180000. Dollars a year for your mom to be in a nursing home and how dramatically your financial situation would change under those circumstances. If a nursing home stays in near term possibility and you haven't done your claiming that. It's time to call the experts at Cushing in Dolan they've got a brand new guide of this month called planning for procrastinators. They've been helping families just like George for the past thirty years and they can help you do don't put us today would you might really need to do tomorrow. All right now get this free guided 8668485699. Protect your assets and your family call 866845699. For your free guide or you can download it right now and our web site legal exchange showed dot com. That's legal exchange showed dot com. And medieval times sharp says was often the difference between victory and feet. For skiers and riders at Killington. The end point of pride and admiration. No matter your battlefield the more you prepare for more triumphant. Here's to living more life on the edge save up to 40% on lift tickets when you purchase an advance at Killington dot com. If you're real estate property management company you need to banking partner that has all the right tools to keep your operation efficient leader bank is one of these premier banks in the property management and real estate space offering a suite of unique products and cash management services to help you collect rent managed Condo association payments in digitize paper checks hi this is chuck is not we'd bank utilizing state of the art technology to offer convenient banking services to -- real estate clients such as a CH payments mobile banking promote check scanners and its innovative -- rent payment platform leader bank has a team of business bankers that are on -- help you know come to your place of business to make it as easy as possible number to call your interest did is 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Find out why many of greater Boston's premier property management and real estate companies choose leader bank is their banking partner call 8776917900. Or email -- BO -- leader bank dot com for more information member FDIC equal housing one. This is a special announcement for a landlords chasing down only rent payments and making trips to the bank to deposit checks take a hassle out of rent today we're zero and leader banks all mine rent collection tool he went automatically deducts tendons went and deposited into your account visit WWW duds he ran dot net to learn more we see rent your payments for each unit received regularly on the same day every moment tenants pay nothing in the first six months or free throw landlords visit WWW dug see rent dot net to learn more or call 7816418691. Very our shores here and I'm joined by estate planning attorney Todd let's cue from the law firm of Cushing and dole and with your legal exchange quick tip of the day. We're talking about last minute planning techniques that can help you save your assets. Todd we've always talked about merit couples in the past. What can be done to save the assets for widow or or single person. You know that's really important because we see that more and more today you know you've got people who have lost spouses are Baylor or like Satan and never got merit planning as if even last minute planning works for them example. Let's say you have a house. And you have some money. And you get sick and you go in the nursing home. People are gonna fail I got to write the check now maybe not. Call right because what we would do is we would allow that house to be considered non accountable for users away for us to do that even when you're single and you're not living there so they wouldn't count. They might lenient but they won't count. And then the money. Depending on your rage we can do one of two things we can either buy a Medicaid annuity for you which would stretch out the money over a long period of time allowing you to pay a Medicaid rate which is about six grand a month vs fifteen grand a month private pay so huge leverage there. Or if you if they're medicated nordic doesn't work out you can do something total pooled trust where you take assets and put it in such a special trust that allows you to get eligible for Medicaid. It may sound complicated but Cushing and dole has written a guide especially for those of you who have put off doing your planning and are now faced with a last minute nursing home situation request this brand new guide from Cushing and dole and by dialing. 8668485699. It's called planning for the procrastinate or. 8668485699. If you want to guide right now go to their website legal exchange showed dot com that's legal exchange showed dot com or call them toll free at 866848. 56. 99 crushing human. It might not be able to keep up with all the latest business and finance news buckwheat. There's the financial exchange with Barry Armstrong and chuck soda on the financial exchange radio network yeah. It's a joining us in the studio now is Todd what's key from the law firm of Cushing and dole he's an expert an elder law. Because all kinds of state planning stuff that I don't understand but he fortunately does understand and could have been here right now Todd thanks for joining us off thanks for having me always pleasure Mattel the reason you're here is that today is the last day that we are giving away your latest guide called asset protection strategies normally we do it on the last day of the month right but we had dinner on New Year's and it was a weekend and all that so we decided hey let's let's do one more extra day just to make shores so are the new Euro offer it in terms of of looking at this what are the big questions people have with regards to their state is. Look people are concerned about estate taxes both at the federal and at the state level. And I think a lot of people wonder hey is there one unified you know process you can put in place to reduce estate taxes are handled at both levels it is there anything out there to deal with. Yeah I think the big issue is since the federal exemption is so high you know what's up by the way the new exemption for 2019 is eleven point four million. It went up from that's a new one that's the new one Oca it went up from eleven point 18 million to eleven point four million so lot of people say well maybe that's not. You know obviously if not everybody has that they're like about state estate tax. Well yes but if you're in a state that has the state estate tax is you've got to be worried about back of their way lower. And the federal. Like a million in Massachusetts two million in Connecticut and a 1000005 in change in Rhode Island so. You gotta do protection for that type one of the is any doubt they've moved already fully clear of that State's estate taxes suppose they keep property in the old state. Great point people moved to Florida our New Hampshire and say. Now knocking owe any estate estate taxes that we were just talking about I don't have to worry about those anymore. You do. If in Massachusetts anyway you kept a piece of property here like many people don't mean Florida snow birds they keep a plea that piece of property appear that they wanna stay close maybe the kids who were up in new England and so they say they'll keep the place in new England and also Meehan my primary resident will be in Florida vacation homes appear whatever so you need to then make sure that that property gets put into an LLC. Because if it doesn't even billion not a resident here Massachusetts will still touch you on that property in this state. And they'll pass they threw you a percentage of your entire state as a percentage of your tires so you could be out of the state of Massachusetts not a mass resident but if you have. Property that's still there you could still be subject to massive state taxes you could be subject and that's putting it in the LLC will eliminate that. And I think the great thing is you can do as state nursing home planning and tax planning at the same time. And that's critical because the federal exemption and so I. No what do you know they're more worried about their own taxes and locally. They also wanna protect us from the national. Lot of people can't do both but we know how to do well but probate calls they're always heading right anytime you can avoid those you absolutely want to. I say that because most of the probate costs lawyer fees. Lawyers lawyer fees I want to pay the lawyer to go to probate if you don't have to. Right. Realists the patent lawyer taught there any areas that fits under no circumstance is exactly right. Product I'm gonna tell people how to get the guys with the name of the December guide that there's no work calling it estate and asset protection strategies. At the same time. Period taught thank you very election one wish you happy new year we thank you others are still our listeners and climbs walls thank you all very much and happy new year when. Folks you are trucked in toddler just talking about. The state taxes and we talked about comp. And just learn it is. You know you might say it was a moment means. For resident. State taxes on. Fact that matters. You might. India should call Cushing handled and receive their guide as Italy's two state asset protection strategies. Talking about state taxes in this instance. If you like to call it at the guide normally the last day you can receive these guys 31 to thirtieth of the month. Because it was holiday word opening it now you have until tonight you call the phone number. Is to ivory. It's 866. 8485699. That's the number EU would dial to receive Cushing handled guide as a goalies to pass protection strategies. 866. 8485699. And many of you may want to receive these guys immediately to go to their website the exchange dot com. Or girl that actually means call and reserve the guide to do's call tool for 8668485699. Now getting back to the important stuff which would include trivia. The crickets rhetorical war though Reagan's speeches were very popular Republican candidate. Water carried just six states and lost in 1964 presidential election to Lyndon Baines Johnson. Winner. We do indeed have a winner was Scott from Warrick war wake Rhode Island. And Scott's take home a fifty dollar gas card. And that trivia today is brought to you by the Armstrong advisory group with markets still volatile now's a great time to review your portfolio so call 800. 393. 4001. Incident your free no obligation consultation today that's 800. 393. 4001. You know if the president is looking for somebody to tweet about human what do think about the drug companies pharmaceutical companies. Are ringing in the new year by raising the price of hundreds of drugs. With Allergan. Setting the pace with increases of nearly 10% on more than two. Dozen products according to a new analysis. You know chuck let me. Approximately 2000 dollars a month for health insurance and for my wife tonight yup and I had to get I've been near perfection I went to the drugstore to get the prescription filled and it cost me sixty bucks. I am not happy. What are you happy. As I paid 2000 dollars a month I'd ever go to the doctor Michael bird into physical. Get a flu shot and I happen to get in your faction wai and section I'd be paid sixty bucks for prescription Mary paid 24000. Dollar health. But the problem isn't so much you win it that there's there's there's two different issues here when we're when we're talking about. Prescriptions and health insurance there there's two separate issues which which one we wanna deal. Well hey it's it's a cost issue to me chuck Eddy at I looked at what people or families are spending. On health insurance especially when you get older unity get in gear late fifties and early sixties track. You know nobody wants to hire you first of all and second ball when you go to buy health insurance it's bloody expensive. Quote it is but that's because that's the cost of the care the way the market is price today. And so I think we're talking about the cost of health insurance it's not the insurance is that expensive it's at the care actually news so. At the drugs the drugs the doctors the hospitals that. The benefit managers they mean he look at all the different layers that are in our healthcare system. In everybody's got a 20% return on equity. And support consumers is sitting there saying hey pat well what about me in yeah I got to raise beta got a 4% raise but my health insurance costs went up 10%. I think there's too well really there's there's three principal problems that they have to be addressed when we're talking. About trying to rein in health care cost the first is that no one price shops right now. No wonder snuck how many people go to to doctors and say GM and I'm gonna go hire the one that's cheapest call. You know that no one does that they say gee I want the best don't sentenced on sentinel. Exactly so there's there's no incentive to the second piece okay is that if you get something wrong with your health care. You're kind of screwed gives you only get as the kids say you only live once OK so. In in this is part of what people don't comparison shop as they say. No I want the best heart surgeon out there when the third best might be 80% of the cost but still do a darn good job. So it's. Think accurately in some cases if I don't get treated the right way I'm going to die like that's that's a reality if you buy a bad you know scorpion a 7-Eleven. You generally don't die you can go get a better one somewhere else later that day you get a bad heart replacement you know heart valve replacement. You might actually die so it's it's really difficult there in the third piece that that it. That really we struggle with is. With how we approved drugs. The FDA approves them based on whether or not they war they don't approve them based on whether or not their cost effective at with what they do. And other countries do have cost effective measure correct me if you look at countries. Europe there's a number of countries say yep might work but it's marginal at best and we're not going to prevail because we don't think it's worth. Or they say we're going to approve of but here's the cost that you have to price it and so until we're well into either aid be much more transparent in price shop more for health care. Urban B. Be willing to regulate drugs based not only on whether or not they work on how effectively they work in the price that their their projected to be out. I don't think we have an answer on drug prices. Coming up were we talking about Chinese manufacturing we're gonna talk about Tesla can work. Also talk about Netflix all of that and more coming up on the financial exchange. It includes. Read chunks in the financial exchange on FaceBook FaceBook dot com slash the financial exchange this is the financial exchange radio network as we age long term care or something to make sure you plan for how quickly would you arrest since being depleted if you had to write checks to the tune of 141000. Dollars every month according to Genworth the average customer private room at a nursing home in New England is just under 135000. Dollars per year and an average cost is expected to increase to over 181000. By the year 20/20 eight if you were a loved one are faced with an unexpected nursing home study and you haven't done your claiming yet before you write that check pick up the phone and called experts attrition Nolan at 86684. Raped by 699. Pushing him Dolan has been helping families just like George protect their assets for more than thirty years and they've put together a brand new guide for this month called claiming for procrastinators. And look for you strategies that can help educate you on the steps you need to take to protect your assets and your family. Do not put off this call any longer did your free guide today by calling 866848569. Time that's 8668485699. Or download the guide right now from our website legal exchange showed dot com. Your dream home is within reach with a Jumbo mortgage a loan from leader bank they're Jumbo loan program designed for financing an excess of 500000 dollars offers fixed or variable rates for both purchases and refinances all originations are managed by leader bank's local underwriting and processing teams for additional cost information call 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Or visit leader bank dot com member FDIC equal housing lender and MLS number 44950. Subject current approval leader bank a step ahead. If you're real estate property management company you need -- banking partner that has all the right tools to keep your operation efficiently a bank is one of these premier banks in the property management and real estate space offering a suite of unique products and cash management services to help you collect rent managed Condo association payments in digitize paper checks hi this is -- -- we'd bank utilizes state of the art technology to offer convenient banking services to which real estate clients such as a CH payments mobile banking promote check scanners and its innovative -- rent payment platform leader bank has a team of business bankers that are on call to help you -- come to your place of business to make it as easy as possible number to call your interest did is 8776917900. That's 8776917900. Find out why many of greater Boston's premier property management and real estate companies choose leader bank is their banking partner call 8776917900. Or email BBO leader bank dot com for more information member FDIC equal housing one. The calendar has turned in a New Year's here after the way the market ended in 2018 we may not want to look back but in addition to reviewing what was it's also time to look ahead hi this is -- strong and I'd like to ask you to also reflect on your financial wellbeing and your investment strategy as we head into 2019 the markets are still volatile many believe the economy is slowing and were on the brink of a recession trade with China continues to be an issue so what does 2019 holds for us Everett a brand new guide they'll help you look back on the roller coaster year while providing you with guidance to keep your portfolio strong and growing it's called the 2018 year in review and tween nineteen forecast and you can get your free copy by calling 803934001. That's 803934001. Or download it right now at Armstrong advisory dot com. Dirty suffered histories and are incorporated in SIPC and advisory service is a protester is America by incorporated Barry Armstrong represented a strong advisory group and secure America companies are unaffiliated and there's a secure is America to go to the legal or tax advice always seek the voice of a professionally with a loss in your state. This is a special announcement for all landlords chasing down league rent payments and making trips to the bank to deposit checks take a hassle out of Iran today we're zero and leader banks all mine rent collection tool he went automatically deducts tenant's rent and deposited into your account visit WWW duds he ran dot net to learn more we see rent your payments for each unit received regularly on the same day every month tenants pay nothing in the first six months or free throw landlords visit WWW dug see rent dot meant to learn more or call 7816418691. Security suffered two securities America ain't member finreg SIPC. Advisory services arbiters securities America advisors think Gary Armstrong represented at Armstrong advisory group in the securities America companies are unaffiliated. We wanna hear from you. Thanks Steward Barry's 263566. And let us know what you think about the stories we discuss your team to the financial exchange radio live. Work. Late last night we got rid of the Chinese manufacturing. That was quite disappointing and frankly a lot of markets around the pool we're down. Right now point out truck World League down 24 points but this PMI number around China really got people's attention. Yeah wasn't good came in at 49 point seven and any reading below fifty indicates contraction. And pretty much that the if if you are someone at a company is in charge of you know buying you know input caught goods and things like Saturn and also may have selling. Each year one of these people is interviewed and so it showed contraction here there's something really interesting to watch with the US number that we get through this as well. That's not coming for a couple weeks now I don't think it's until needed to know me see where it is. Yeah that's going to be in mid to late January. And what's really interesting in the US number is that historically. And in don't ask me why this is OK I was just looking at the correlation over the or earlier this morning. But there's a survey that the Richmond fed puts out. On this and effectively. This Richmond fed survey correlates pretty well to be manufacturing PMI in the United States. The Richmond fed surveyed just indicated that in the next one or two months the US PMI should start declining as well below that fifty mark and that's something it does happen on a fairly regular basis OK it happened in 1415. And sixteen so three years. Two of which were actually pretty good years the market fourteen and sixteen. And so it's something that you know does happen regularly and isn't cause for pinot. Alarm at all stages and all levels but it is something that does suggest hey there's a slowing that's happening. In economic activity in based on this Richmond fed number that we got I wouldn't be surprised if one of the next two US PMI readings looks pretty negative as well. And I'll point out that those numbers are coming in. With a very modest terrorists having been placed it and they would be considerably worse if the terrorists increase by another 25%. Yeah aid that that would represent another leg down word just because it is throws another wrench into the use it which businesses are able to operate. And so it's OK do we decide okay we want to pay these tariffs in order to have to go through with the you know importing goods. Or did we get take additional cost and reorient supply chains is just another question for businesses. Tesla disappointed investors this morning by delivering 90000 vehicles during the fourth quarter which fell short of Wall Street forecasts. Chuck their stock is down a break now 21 dollars a share or 6%. The other problem Tesla has is their tax credits are being reduced by 50%. Yeah and so they have to cut prices on all of their models by 2000 dollars in order to offset some of that reduction. In federal tax credits for buyers. And so they're cutting prices that means that if they don't find more efficient ways to build their vehicles then they're going to be less profitable. And so Tesla got some concerns here they still have. The big question is whether or not there convertible debts that is open at the march. Is going to end of converting to equity and up pretty much the way convertible debt works if you're not familiar with that. As if you're listening enough familiar with that. Is if the company's stock price is above a certain price per share at a certain point. The debt convert to equity so someone who had you know been getting paid 8% a year on this debt instead gets to have converted to equity. If not then test has to refinance that debt and that's potentially a problem for. Great news how much cash they have on hand here about three billion somewhere in that ballpark did you see that the thing that they did. Think it was an early December though where they issued some debt that was backed by at least obligations it's not exactly the most encouraging thing to see. Now there their pulled all the levers the Afghan. Netflix shares down two dollars and 89 cents to 64. You know say what you will about Netflix seems like everybody. That I meet anyway it it watches Netflix and they Mena have their own account that they're paying for like your mom and dad but they've gotten out that they have access to. Yeah they they do it's that the big question is is Netflix going to be able to generate enough money enough cash flow. The paid a service that that they have today and be paid to issue additional debt and pay for the service on that debt in the future. You know when we when we talk accompanies it in I'm not suggesting Netflix is going to go out of business but it just like to kind of talk about this in general. The goal of any companies to create value and by that its pay what can you do that no one else dollars. If someone else can copy your service and get someone to pay the same price for it. You don't generate value don't create value because you're not doing anything unique you're not doing anything special. And so when Netflix case. They have a huge first mover advantage they are the biggest in the first major streaming service out there. Bought if a big library to track as they've been spending billions of dollars per year they do but that library is gonna start getting smaller and granted it's not gonna get exponentially smaller when Disney pulls their stuff often launches their own service. But it's not just about the size it's about the type of content that's out there it's gonna get polled. And there's a whole lot more people that wanna watched Star Wars for better for worse then want to watch and Netflix documentary okay. And so I think the question is can Netflix continue to produce enough good con tent. At a low enough cost. To compete in this world. I think they can. But it might not be accompany it as a ton of growth left in the share price because it's gonna face competition and I don't know how much more they can raise prices to be honest. Like I've got pricing. But you know I I would if they raise my rate by two bucks. They they do a certain extent I'm paying because they subsidized my parents and aunts and uncles and nieces and nephews and all that. I'm I'm paying fifteen bucks a month. I would be comfortable going up to around eighteen or nineteen beyond that yeah I don't think so so they've they've got some room to to go up for me. East. I wanna point out that oil is rallying we've talked about stocks this morning and how. The opened up in negative territory they are down about 400 points books now that dazzling down 73 points and NASDAQ down seven which is nothing morally. Big story from my perspective I think will be talking about two more truck as crude oil to the dollar seventy apparel. At 4711. I spent some time on New Year's Eve with the oil trader. And he thinks we're going to be back in the seventies by next year we're good later this year she is as good as it is New Year's Eve until we next year so. Middle of this year he's thinking will be paying 6070 dollars a barrel right now 4711. Yeah higher prices good for producers bad for consumers if we get too much lower than this I think producers start to get concerned and a lot of parts of the US. Unity unity thing that's disconcerting news. You saw the prices drop you know we we had oil trading in the low forties and we didn't see much of a difference at the pump you know they do it if it's almost illegal alien benefit. We'll prices. Yup they wanna thank you all for tuning into the first show of our new year it's 2090. The Dow's down 86 the S and -- down six that nasdaq's offer two points. Like I said oil trading at 4711. Per barrel. We'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the financial exchange.