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Adam Johnson (BullseyeBrief.com, Fed & Market Sell Off)

Oct 11, 2018|

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Vote on our daily poll question had financial exchange showed John come while you're there buyer of the media player and watch the show while you work. This case the financial exchange radio network. Are you afraid to call a plumber because you don't know the cost easy plumbing can complete most simple residential service calls for under 300 dollars. Could be a block sacred drain maybe it's a leaky faucet shower or one of those non stop running toilets call easy plumbing. They can fix it fast they can leave your home spotless when they leave. Cultivate 7818621190. Or visit them online at easy plumbing and A dot com. Mass master license number 101. Eat three. Joining us on the line now is Adam Johnson from New York in our weekly stock picking segment he's the founder and author of bullseye briefed. Actionable ideas for thoughtful investors. At a good to have candidates about the perfect David talked via I think. Here are the yep providing you got your you know your your padding on in your football but I mean that. You know it's pretty bad but haven't seen as much red in my portfolio or at the moment. Well let's talk about what the cause is here for me when I take a look at this. It's really similar to what we saw back in February back then we get a really good jobs report on a Friday market fell port up fell apart on Monday on inflation fears continue that for about a week or two. Inning gradually got its feet under again this time. We've got Jerome Powell talked about how he wants to be more aggressive on rate hikes really good jobs report PPI a little bit hotter than expected seems story in my book do you view it similarly. Yeah I really do and there's about this sort of talking its subscribers as part of a hangover currently under. Not a bad. I think they're they're there a couple of other components besides the great the first viking to comment on the rate. If you look at the Fed Funds rate now at what the Fed that it you know respect Margaret. If you look back in 1985 is that it has averaged three point 75%. We're to a quarter now so richter still incredibly well. Until that winnable war whenever you or oil that we're in perspective locally 200 yen it's gonna bankrupt American consumers. And I would you respond by saying you've got Russia Saudi Arabia at the US all pumping more than eleven billion barrels a day there's so much oil sector. But actually we don't have enough light like. Get it out of west the west technical trading could eat delegate our future. You know somebody's argument that people are. Put important that the state is over I really disagree with the U you don't have to dig down at bar and ordered aren't the you know there's reason to say well you know district at. You know a correctional on the way. In May in my view looking at what we saw yesterday and a lot of the things that people of brought up. We didn't get any new news you know from the perspective of the nothing's that was scary yesterday in Europe there's nothing scary yesterday in China. There's a that was scariest day for mid terms it was it was kind of hey we we just kind of had this. Build up of inflation fears over the last few days. And I always view fear as something the market can overcome what it can't overcome. Is if you have concrete change the example I gave earlier in the show if Italy decides hey we want out of of the EU that's a fundamental change that we've got to deal with. But fears can be overcome in markets. Yeah in a matter of fact we have seen what happened yet. Before and here where I'm getting at. Going back to 1950. During. All market that it is certainly people market there had been twenty times. Let me up and 500 traded down at least 3% on one single bit. And then if you look forward to run the the 590%. Of the time has rallied almost 7%. So eight we've seen it before it where it is and be. These kinds of movies in bull market do happen typically their opportunities that are in you're absolutely right. Not only change. Anything. Headline that the Wall Street Journal literally just put out. Probably you're calling. Is that president trump and she planned to speak at the G-20 coming up in November and from my point in that actually is is the change in a good news. You know that that that that might pick on on where we are the. I don't look at drilled added specific issues if you look around. And individual stocks and it's looking interest continued today because it took maybe too much of a pounding over the last week. Quote yeah Michael portfolio under her over in in you know I'm I'm kind of what went Patrick look and are still up. You know all the I gave up three percentage point over the past two weeks the bat and they're only going to go prepare their picker the Soviet. As I look at our portfolio and our 49 being in position. I've been adding to them. Did you bet. I think are most app proposed certainly our listeners. Believe or not China that China has gotten way overdone I'm looking at Alibaba ticker BA BA. And a way to Piccard WP. A quick comment on each of these. I'm Alibaba expert though right it's not that era Obama trying to be every part of Asia. They operate thirty different subsidiaries are growing very by respect our trading under and currently there are now about. Then 3540%. From nuevo. The quarter trying to it has all of the Chinese celebrities and it revenues are at least now. Unlike you know are quicker all the the Lebanese don't match if Kim Kardashian were spelling you know whatever. On on Twitter. They they monetize it revenues are growing 55. It it to a tree under twenty kind. I'll end. And it down 60% from behind so you know that's my point but the real opportunity I would want our web by but yet what that would be out now are you buying. Interest in contrarian take antenna. Adam white a heck doesn't Twitter allow what you just described. It I don't know I wish they would effect a blog FaceBook about FaceBook on the pit in my. Favorite things went great companies that he has certainly been you know when he stumbled at FaceBook and if they would just. Start monetize in the platform yet would fail they're starting to do that are in print one click here pal worked in either but it ethnic. Let me go to Google. And the U. You know you go to Patagonia because you're like a by the the board short okay by you don't by any well. All the cookies or your machine and now FaceBook and access to those cookies they look at Peter Kiewit is Google that's right they're getting Google at law. It is the grand out there creating these on the in the again in the weight aren't trying to beat you getting me one quick thing so if you're in the Gramm feed it. Eight vote or short you get. On Patagonia I don't with one click. You click there people you buy. And to me that is the way forward outback they're doing a comment I have been yet immediately they're doing it on the main pick a platform. That kind of monetization that I love to. Adam working at. Inflation wanted to circle back to that briefly just is you know it's it's been in focus the last week both with again Jerome Powell talking. Jobs report on Friday showing you of three point 9% wage growth for the third quarter which is. Outstanding to see. And then obviously this PPI number we got the other day. And then all of a sudden you get when these today where the CPI comes in way weaker than X that we weaker and weaker than expected. What is going do you have any idea what's happening inflation wise is I continue to look at all these numbers. They don't pay any consistent picture from one to the next I I feel a little lost on. Yeah well. And you're exactly right there's so many different maker of the lake Beckett traditionally looked at. What's called BP CE core. And that's running at one nighter to you can look at headline CPI and depending on the market but the ball number. You know it it might be who that is designed. So they're all these different measures of inflation on the thing that I'm watching more closely than any of those headline inflation number is weak group. And you know you get ready should one number you know bureau at six. Number I'm also looking accompanies the fact that Starbucks is now there are paying everybody fifty dollars the fact that bet that one of my long. I got it somewhat but if it better. But it it it hit a couple of weeks ago when it noted on a conference call and it's going to start paying people more that a cut in the market lightly. I also expected to pass that aren't so. The way. We're the wait wait. Spiral is what my former. Economics professor Alan Blinder Chris that always I think that when when you start on the spiraling. Where it is the prices. That would have an issue fortunately. We're still. Way below where that becomes an issue. With Kabila number two point 9% but not until you get about 3839 that it is a worry but. Wait that that's what I spoke more than anything else they're finally starting to boo which is good hard working Americans make board they spend more electorate earnings. One reason people but it not yet it hasn't yet clocked over where your. Very good Adam we've got to run but thanks for joining us. Our repeater which we could he go to the market are up. Absolutely that's Adam Johnson from bullseye brief dot Tommy puts new picks up every Sunday morning you can sign up right now at bull's eye brief. Dot com.