Aug 9, 2018|
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
The financial exchanges line on FaceBook and YouTube watch Berrian chug discuss the issues of the day and see which one smiles the most. Days as a financial exchange radio network. And Johnson joins us now from from new York and our weekly stock picking segments he's founder and author of bullseye brief actionable ideas for thoughtful investors. Adam you know we're market has continued to at least stay afloat at this point after the summer how far away are we from the those all time highs repackaging you're. Oh we're knocking on the door and it you know the thing I like to quote the greatest story never cold because you know if you only read the newspapers you would think. Really not going greatly cut trade problems on the market struggling. You know they've been very blow up FaceBook. Netflix on and on and yet here we are with and half a percent. Of the all time high on the S&P 500 incredibly small cap. And an aspect. They already people who through the January highs have been making their own yeah oh. Yet be at greatest story never told I don't know why would only book on the negative there should be on my American equity investors weren't the you know. Thanks for much better news talk about the terrible stuff let's talk a little bit about small caps and AA. You're actually right and it seems like the tax reform has really pushed small caps higher and higher. And look at the way I'm going to be the negative detriment here let's talk about you know the issues that might be facing small caps coming up here I see big shortages in labor. See all the input costs seeming to be going up for small businesses should we have any concerns about the murder they still have further round because of this tax reform. Well actually let me also say not only an effort to act or they also. Generally speaking are shielded it from trade issues because more companies out there more credit. Footprints but he tended to let international business that also that one of the being that has propelled. Okay answer your question do they have farther to run yes I'm I'm very bullish on on the market and I think not only these small caps. That's part of the run but I think large cap bill and indeed even the cyclicals like semi conductors you know kind of at a ticket unfortunate recently Becky Morgan Stanley downgraded. In that applied materials this morning actually disagree after the laws but are accurate why. There's been a lot of talk about that narrowing it. To be fueled her right because. If the debate on the two year which is near term has gone up in the year rate on the ten year after that. They're a bit rate which in theory means that. We got problems. Right now and we don't have grow longer term price if you look back at previous crimes. When we have seen a narrowing of spreads between basis point where it now and then and even gone negative. The stock market has rallied for another 24 to thirty months. Or twenty to thirty per cent. Yeah okay fine we eventually did get recessions but all the negative. Pop and and commentary that you know albeit a recession in 20/20 eight commented on the hike bill. Actually short now know we got another eighteen to 24 months to join the rally. And I think all these names and to take it on the chin like pennies. And art are going to have their day and I did get a very bullish but who ever in an employment are so strong. Well let let's talk about trade and you kind of mentioned it small caps seem to be a bit insulated from trade. We seem to be seen I think we're seeing some improvement I mean Mexico since becoming the table Europe seems to be coming to the table. But China and I mean China's the big one they seem to be going in the other direction what are your thoughts on you know where trade goes at this point. A couple of or the ball on the record. Okay look at it. I'll get credit for letting it be yup and that is Robert why are you regret that we think we get at it you'll that we. That's incredibly. The Canadian foreign minister on it that we are quote very very he'd been working quote very very rapid or. The back just like conquered the EU commissioner at the White House two weeks ago network partner network where great you're great. Those back. Now what. It. Might be that progress with NAFTA. And Europe. Is effectively being used as a lever against China. Now. The Chinese are. What I was trading oil to try to sell oil into China I rightly I think. In fact that there are there incredibly. So trying to leverage the Chinese are probably. A winning formula. But what we are thinking is that in the Wall Street Journal that the very good reporting earnings he cracked with in the Chinese leadership whether thing maybe we need to. Mind some sort of common ground and my hope. In the typical. Mr. trump figures out ways to do the Chinese have run away some political cover and yet there the you know. Sanctions on Russia the war beat up on Russian or Chinese economy nauert treaty. And my hope is that we make progress and what gives me the act that the Chinese market if you look at the app. Fox trot extreme India that the Chinese eat yet. There hit it sideways for the week going. Down 0% today but I'd. Yeah it's steps we are in your but it is about Oregon held their other people were looking at that lightly you know things. He you know the worst. The Bay Area yeah hammering the same article is something published an in writers I think. Chinese leadership is facing a rare backlash for its handling of the US trade disputes and usually don't see that re re re usually see almost or nothing political coming out of China it's what she says goes. Kind of like yeah I'll. That's right yes I kind of like what a satellite to help one. And I've merely politically it anyway on no we do there. Right I mean I don't care what her views are you know where you're there on the political spectrum in it's been quite what a great. It is. Yeah well I mean I think there is a fair between positive about it we've been saying this whole time I would much rather have trade deals wrapped up in Europe and Canada and Mexico that we can all at least and you know in the united front and deal with China as one. You know group of countries CPP deal if if we do get there than that could be I I tend to agree you could have sent to be buried at the markets we get to that point. Well let me take coming I am positions and again I mean you know you know we talk every week about. It's I can't help. But it down. Or hopefully not a you know a drunken bull that you know on an opt. He can't. I'm certainly position I'm putting my money where my lap of one. Fifty positions right now only two short and they're basically aren't related. I think he'll go to I am position to force some sort of resolution. You know acquired long Alibaba mean have you like Amazon you act like Ali Bob yeah as an example I mean everything Amazon. They do. And it packet that if in China but they're bankrupt all of southeast Asia. And into. India and I mean they beat you logistics they do like you know Amazon Web Services they have valid about the web services. I mean they have thirty different sitting here. There are some very exciting position. That we can put on in China get epic sized ETF. I don't know how this thing shakes out I don't know when it shakes out. But you know if we can at least get progress. Look at Africa I think we well the actual progress with Eric with Europe I think we well. This thing get on court and we're going a lot higher on the a and 500 and that's that's the at least resistant people are thinking that right now they're picking restriction in the wrong the. Appreciate Adam our turtle up optimist Adam Johnson from bull's eye brief you can find all that and sticks at bullseye brief dot com by the way folks Adam thanks for joining us appreciate it. They bury my expect you report being an act which. They care. You know the one thing that struck me was when you're talking about employment but if unemployment gets to strong would have workers. Who would have employers just can't find workers and regardless the wage yeah. Adding that's a danger. But you know what historically at least technology has solved those problems right. Okay if wages get too high the most CA a heck of a lot less people working at restaurants some more people see the automated tracking you know we'll see automate trucker I guess I look at a lot of those industries that are facing worker shortages right now. I think the main reason people are doing them is because they say. Penalty is jobs gonna be here fifteen years from now. You're taking a trucking job you're thinking yourself am I gonna have this 1015 years now and I'm going to be a pilot. Well I have this job 1015 years now all right be replaced by computer now that he he I think both those trucking. It's it's it's hard to imagine as a daisy the elimination. Five million jobs it's just as excited that that's only people drive. For love five. And a think about I think about pilot stress Israelis to have what 44 pilots in the cockpit on day long flight or two or three now. Yeah that's gonna continue to go that way right well pilot. The the jets right now are landed by iRobot right in the take offs are Rabat. I wonder if airlines go robotic. Prior to trucking companies. I could you imagine how they'll get on it yet about it without or maybe there's just one pilot instead history I think what you received much sooner is UPS and FedEx flying flights without bail. And without Beale immediately. You look at how much of our transportation. It's it it would with all of these that the ships there it is shipping containers at the lot of those. Jobs would be eliminated with Rabat president do about how many people used to work on the years. Fifty years ago unloading the ships out there today people are working on today.