Dec 29, 2016|
Krystina Gustafson (CNBC, Holiday Shopping Season) by The Financial Exchange
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
Barry and chuck are off this week John Moody Michael Armstrong Tucker Silva standing by. And we talked a lot about spending. Holiday spending in particular. Of course the big economic story right now. This is shaping up really as a pretty good holiday shopping season so far but just how good is it going to turn out. Christina Gustafson is from CNBC and says we're benefiting from a late surge Christina thanks for joining us. It. Christina will procrastinators. Turn this into a great shopping season with their last minute purchases. At that is starting to look that way and if you remember when we started off as shopping season it was a little bit weak. Would be election distraction kind of holding consumers back from their spending but often have a little bit of an extreme heat on the critical Black Friday weekend where people are out shopping bag. At this intended deep discounts for letting them spend a lot at that. Now this big last minute surge we had the extra full day of shopping people Saturday before Christmas this year and it seemed like people are. Waiting until the last minute Q god and the that this deal. I almost wonder when you describe the beautiful win which is appalled if there's a little bit of a stare down going Christina between the shoppers saying. You know I think I can hold on for a better deal and the businesses saying you know earlier in December not now we can attract you right now is they're looking to stare down going on. I think there definitely is obviously these retailers are trying to do everything that they can to get consumers to pay full price but at this point. Did you think condition that they don't really have to you but what is different this year that we saw last season with that retailers really cared. You're much better job of getting their inventory levels in line a lot of the discount that we saw this year vs last year. Or more plans for that kind of backfired spell emergencies papers promotions. But it seems like the day after Christmas everything was 75% off is that stage is that sort of is that real amazed if you like people got a better deal waiting until after Christmas. You know I think it really depends on where your shopping in it helped that to be vigilant about the deal I agree I definitely to get some really since they discount that didn't happen and that would go to interpret the thing happened. Got some X yet he got into a legitimate legal a lot of off on the boots and a. Yes 50% off each pair that mile around their bill. But you know the real pricing twos and that's that that's what the reasons behind the strong sales numbers overall we look at the whole seasonal well it looks like it's going to be. In our effort between plus three point six to plus four point five is that what you're hearing and if so what are the reasons for that. After The National Retail Federation is kind of the big consensus number on that than there are predicting. That we would be up three point 6% this year and they came out just a couple weeks ago and said that over still in position to meet or exceed tax. The big news earlier this week let. Customer growth partners which of the big. Big forecasting firm there they tend to be quite accurate with their forecast. They had originally been projecting four point 1% growth and now they're predicting four point 9%. And the reason behind that is basically their thing that were coming in. On the bullish and all of the assumptions they had been making heading into the holidays that we each games are continuing. Gas prices are lower than they had expected them to be unemployment. Figures are looking good so with all about that in the last minute search. Expecting about it than people expected holiday. I just say it isn't really to commend the way you say which is late polish that makes it more difficult to analyze right because of line item a new numbers coming in literally right before the being counted. Exactly and obviously there's delays on these sorts of things that some of the figures that we get content and TD check out tracking. They're scanning a repeat of the dessert a couple weeks the waves that's. They just came out today with the week ahead of correctness thing that those receipts are down but obviously as it takes time tabulate these things and then with the Commerce Department numbers. Not coming out until next week it'll be a little bit at times until we can truly gauge how good decent lies. What thing that strikes me how does your information it's consistent with what we're hearing elsewhere in retail. Of being a strong season how does that mesh with lighter foot traffic at the mall. Yeah I don't really and strengthening it. Compare has been when you look at it and I think as part of what we're seeing here is. Well traffic is down at the mall a lot of the retailers that are doing well actually not cut them all. You know it's the places like he can't compete better and more strips that are at the area said. Behind a little bit of the discrepancy also of course that the Internet you'd go into these doors we are educated and used to be. A traffic might be down conversion models on the tires. People are going to kick the tires are going to buy a parent should know what they are spending money legitimately. And it's really changed the dynamic of retail use gift cards. The extent to which that really is kind of like a deferred purchase right I mean you're you're you're you're getting revenue that gonna see you later correct. Exactly and not like some organizations that believe delay is one of them they actually when they're predicting holiday bill. They incorporate January into their prediction because they are aware that hey you know a lot of the spending actually happens. In January at people redeeming their gift cards and those sales don't get counted until they are back. Yet that's a big deal because if people are buying a lot of gift cards and I mean I'd buy a lot of gift cards I received a lot of gift cards. I was surprised to read that that sale which is legitimate sale doesn't count in these numbers you're talking about. Yes definitely it fits in with over all of these is that we're hearing you know people are spreading out their spending more than ever before and you could even argue that holidays even got off to start this summer when Amazon did prime date as some people were reporting that they are. Picking up early Christmas present at that time so early this season and just getting longer and longer. It doesn't seem to you that I obviously on line is getting increasing share of the pie. But do you think the convenience of on line has actually expanded the size of the pie I think at bats. I have an off it's really interesting that we're seeing at the bricks and mortar guys are starting to catch up a little bet obviously Amazon still has a huge shed almost indisputable lead. Over them but this is it a lot more retailers where investing in their buy online pick up in storage services for that adds another level of convenience and but also allow shoppers at least there online order later in the season is lost but you know could be another reason why more the last minute push this year. Do you have a hunch as to what the near term future holds obviously it's a pretty strong season consumer confidence was off the charts. That's the good news looking for retail I would think. It you know I would also caution that just because consumers are feeling confident doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to be spending on things like apparel consumer electronics I know. Especially with the millennial generation people are really interested in traveling in dining out and spending on experiences that that's going to be something that continues to weigh on retailers in Athens team. Other any early projections as to how 2017 might go. You know there's a lot of conversation going on right now about the concerns regarding you know where's the political landscape my on how to make sheets and policies for retailers but now we are hearing that would be news stock market highs being reached there could be a bit of her surgeon in the under after which would be much needed. Yeah and we could be some consolidation there too we just talk about Kate Spade we're talking about you know to hold the whole issue with though. The of the bags I think that's gonna play out. It interesting if you don't know that I am I can project on. We think the strength in the handbag maker's particularly coach has been doing much better recently that in the interaction there's going well. Yeah we're sent coach could be a takeover candidate here the stock is up I think in anticipation that's something to keep an eye on. Fascinating stuff Christina Gustafson thanks and enjoy those new boots. I I just hope not to use like that big boots very soon you know getting through snowstorms. All right Christina gusts and CNBC thank you very much for joining us. It pretty up upbeat outlook there I'd say Mike on arm on the of the way the Christmas season is shaping up yeah very much so we guide I hadn't thought about you know the brick and mortar sales and what that it looks like but it's a very good point that those Home Depot purchases news in those nontraditional shopping all purchases might be making up for those that lack of shopping trap.