Sep 2, 2016|
Larry Kudlow (CNBC, Jobs Report) by The Financial Exchange
Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.
We're joined now by CNBC senior contributor Larry Kudlow he's also the author of the book JFK. And the Reagan revolution. Out in September can I get one now Larry is that it can be a big order one on Amazon. Yeah and brewer thank you September 16 day of publication date and we have. Took out of the kind of media stuff coming up but yet you can get go I give it a quick read. And it's great but JFK. Connecting dots there Ronald Reagan did both worst supply side tax cutters and those policies work you know both times picked up. Soft jobs report this morning Larry. Thought I agree with that exactly right word. I think inside this thing. I'm just looking at the weakest and you know the goods producing sector and manufacturing sector. Because they've been blowing for quite some time and as she's so like yesterday or. Did it before I SM manufacturing is slipping once again below fifty. You know we've talked a lot of show. Falling profit. More recently five consecutive quarters of the year on year profits decline according to the GDP numbers which are the best. And you've got business investment far and few doubt productivity or. So I would still argue already in filed business recession. I edit overall recession. But you know and businesses are are are contracting and that means. Jobs are gonna start flowing and growing an area so. It's not good god god is the word of the day. They when you look forward hey he give any projections for Q3 and Q4 GDP because to your point. You know you talk about being at a business recession we're not far where we're at would buy a in year old colleague warned Mosul refers to his stall speed. Yep guys that's right look I think Q3. We'll see a balance. Largely due to a reversal of inventory. I don't wanna get too terribly. Technical and a week that. It didn't read that brought the last couple quarters. Probably dragged out GDP appoint herself. Each quarter I think got a reverse. So you could get out. What to and Hannity get 3% economic growth that's called three. In tiny battery and then you'll probably level back into the trend is still I think Barry's numbers between one and after 2% that's the Trent Lott. For the economy I don't see any break out. And pretty 900 million I'm. I would recommend you. Large scale are. Product support business tax cut its business that's hurting its business taxes that are not competitive led to lead to pick up that. Rate hike yeah I pretty sure is off the table in September what about December Larry. I don't PayPal always Biamila can't deploy wrote that this story. The Federal Reserve. Which made the total overhaul army bowl really gap over all. They should not be using wages and jobs as their barker for policies to be using inflation and price stability. And by the way stable dollar now. We have a pretty stable that's good we virtually have no inflation. That's good OK so I would ought to tighten that. I would want to wait is coming got it turned out its regulations. And taxes. That's the biggest impact on the real economy. Those are the incentives that they that make people work David that tick list about that I've been produce money. But it can't produce jobs and I for the life could be just can't look at this idea. That it wages go up a little bit by the way raiders were lousy. That support average hourly earnings zero point 1% to 2.4 percent a year a year or so. That's not a big play. If you have price stability and Adam steady green back that's how bad do not. I think I'd recommend that it that it. Let your massive three I have four trillion dollar Bob import oil. Let it start writing off normally you don't reinvent the pros that would gradually start running off today. That's the best way to normalize relations. And let markets album. Went to raise rates you know have to buy abuse surge if the ten year rate has surged then that that should probably thought that at I don't see any of that happen. Larry it's interesting that you mentioned that it's one of the things that I had talked about. And I believe it was when the Fed was meeting in Jackson Hole last week they came out and they said they'd talked about it but they they couldn't predict what effect that would have my argument route would be put. You still bought these bonds you can predict it's a wanna go the other way right. Now that's good I grew it back out there. They have to get Abbott a couple but I was not a fan of QE. After QE1 you know back and that is that yes it's beyond that I did well. They sort of raise its target rate. Internally to if you remember you got back in the future chart this CPI. Actually got aside three point 8% back and I think that quite elaborate. That's an opening you know the Taylor rule basically says that by Israel should be one wanna have that they should dug out three years ago four years ago booted. I wouldn't do it out but let the Basra. We're obviously all. Good signal it shows that they can get you know we read control of their own portfolio. And then let them market talk about interest rates that's my whole point that if the ten year rate. Had jumped from what was the low 14130. If you want to do it jumped to two or two and a quarter. And I stayed up there that would help with that okay follow market rates but the only way I see that happening job. I sound like you know I'm an echo chamber here. You if you slash business tax rates if you lower regulatory burden and you know energy and health care and all the small business. That would grow the economy it's three or four more and that means real interest rates will go up naturally. And then the Fed can follow that but at the Fed tries to manufactured tighten it didn't do much more harm than good. Very good Larry thank you very much for your time we appreciate how about an economic. And thank you and congratulations on the book next act back as Larry. Cut those senior contributor to CNBC if you wanna get on the waiting list for his book I guess you go to Amazon.com. It's called. JFK. And the Reagan revolution if you wanna order the author Larry Kudlow of course.