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Planstrong Financial Forum 11-29-15

Dec 2, 2015|

"Smart investing, simplified"

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It's less drug financial forum on the host Ken carver yet in the anchor desk today in Paul Parsons joins me Paul is president of planned strong investment management welcome back to program Paul great to be here on a Thanksgiving. Week and day week yeah it's it's a great weekend is a big rekindle all this you know Thanksgiving is one of those holidays where you just get even preach freedom watch football. On a roll animal then maybe get outside a little but the weather's little warm in this weekend which is a nice change ferocity but I couldn't tell you I'm. One of my fear holidays one what's not to like about eating and drinking it too great things tend free cash and they are both good. Think you're going to be good deserve that well you know what we're we're we're start there is also nice to be able to take. 34 or five days off as many people do during this time a year it to you don't quite call it a week but boy do and we you know it seems that the weekend starts on Tuesday what it's so funny since I was I was watching with interest that awful I'm. Case with the that young man who's accused of of killing that teach her how to do norte shortness. And they that I judge excuse them after Monday. In general have a nice weekend and you know for late Tuesday on an I forced it to myself why might my team network doesn't hear that because. Unmask and none to be there through Wednesday Allen and it's. Go figure that one day it's nice to work one day and ignorance of the week off as the room. That blades sincerely get back from not from the prior week you're on to the next weekend. We here we are smack dab in the middle of this Thanksgiving weekend so we certainly hope that to our listeners are outspending. Thing multi. At the stores this of course is the Black Friday weekend I pray we get it's the beginning of the Christmas buying season and it's important for stores to. To really get sales going right now we'll have some of those numbers later on next couple weeks or so. Why are actually gonna the story today Kenny about already winners and losers in this even before. On you know this entire weekend can be tabulated guys we already have a pretty good indicator of who the winners are and maybe who some who haven't done us well. I will be as a result of that. But even before we get to back and I just ask you one question or did you get a call from Bill Belichick this week no build in currently rudely she called my house he I think I call my neighbor he was looking for either our running back or or a receiver. Yeah because I I guess we're down out of the early this rumor has it he's been scope on the junior high heels at and now looking for anybody with a pulse and once he finishes with the kids then he's come in for old people like us. Okay is that it's been tough in terms of injuries but you know is always the in the W his record in the in the win column I guess we can be we kick a blank I literally Siam and follow us Monday night I saw him pass like he didn't just winced when he went on this afternoon her debut in its own right there because they are really an Olympic. The city not. Good all I can tell you is you know I'll stick by your phone Kennedy's idea I could get the call could get the volume and put in the game coach just figure they went to that a great. High school for football the tiger play Iowa it's a very Brothers and I know that they've they've been doing very well yeah and but that. No I I wasn't asked to be on the team on these Crowley has a Varian Brothers field but watching some of the people who are little more people should be should be. Obviously pro ball for folks who are new to this program. I we should know this program is a little bit different from some other money programs that testing program really other than football. We just we know very little about the way averaged enjoy that doesn't differentiate us much from the sportscasters you guys these days engineer Ray Lewis the other night off without our. Unbelievable it was. I was sitting there trying to get through his watch cannabis I don't think there is logic I'm not sure whose other Ray Lewis would be the one not speak through not about football intelligently to see you and I do with this possibility for us but in the meantime we'll talk about some hope we know something a little bit our largest investor investing and certainly. You know this time of year as we get towards the end of the year certainly isn't a time when when our listeners may want to think about talking to a seasoned. Investment professionals such as yourself. A postal remember ADD 9727526. We'll give that throughout the program later on but. A lot of information and balls the balls this year we view the two officials in our research you do palms. Researchers drew the name of the game with what you do is and without a doubt and. And it's funny you mentioned nothing about your ran because I'd like to relate to vote almost the second half for the show and to a couple things that I think investors should know about your rent and specifically I have to tie it it's a good good reason for you to consider. A giving my office call once I thought you know shuttled line on this missing while I'm not sure 900 to rise so stay tuned for that but in the meantime I wanted to cover some business stories sure we have some real he could stuff if you are so when we get to know what's going on. Well first of all. There were few key pieces pieces of US economic data released this when you know Q3 GDP. That's probably pretty important piece right. That was revised up ports from one and a half percent to two point 1% so bad or okay. On and out but the reason it was op was because they understated inventory build before so it really isn't that good a deal so it 2% to it's it's better than one and a half but it's still not great OK but that's very important number another one is that existing home sales came in became an a little bit down to about 3% down from the prior month to run 55 point four million. On and they're only up 4% year over year neither of those is particularly bad neither one is particularly good just trying to OK. On consumer confidence continued to kind of decreased a little bit but from record levels right so quite hi all at an all time highs and are cut you know couple weeks three weeks ago something like that. So it's down a bit from their but it still are relatively strong with a reading of ninety I'm you know it's it's not terrible I can say that and probably the big news next week that I want people really to pay attention and is the November employment situation report due out Friday the fourth. Why is that so important it's really important as I think it's probably one of the last key pieces of data. But the Fed will be looking at before they make their decision whether or not to raise interest rates are high in the December 16 meeting. So you know if that number comes out anything close to reasonable or is kind of the opposite of the way I heard a sportscaster describing Monday Night Football game against buffalo called a stink bomb. On if it's anything even close to reasonable my guess is the fixes and and and we're gonna have us a small read increase that'll be announced in the December 16. Now as we get closer to the end of the year we should have all the yearnings and now from Q3 yeah. And at the end of the quarter is finally. All Don Q3 and a quarter and you know they've gotten I. The number 9596%. Of the earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 which is you know it was an index of 500 largest publicly traded companies last. They've reported their earnings and Q3 earnings declined by about one and a half percent. That is much better by the way than 5% that they are racially anticipated. Now guess what energy sector earnings were down almost 60%. And excluding energy earnings would have increased by 5%. OK so energy really a set and and yet at the same time he got to look the whole package. And in the whole package we're down about one and a half percent. Now positive earnings surprises came from Wal-Mart TJ Jackson Home Depot low. And analysts are predicting an earnings decline of about 4%. Next quarter down from one and a half percent this year to about 4% next quarter. And for the whole year at they they think earnings are going to be essentially flat Euro per year 2015 verses 2014. But van. Earnings are expected to grow around 8% for the full year 2016. Why gains on healthcare tack consumer discretionary and energy so. You know this was a bad year for or our earnings numerous greatly are hurt by. Energy and materials and the the commodity prices of those in their for the earnings of those companies. We don't see that happening again next year frankly they can't fall nearly as much as they fell this year and so as a result. You know it's a look a like about 8% year over year for next year and that's the case and we'll hopefully see a little bump in the stock or cholesterol the result to reflect. Now the new Medicare part B premiums were announced food we learn there you are you know I did a story on this couple weeks ago when you know last week we talk about investments on the show and it takes a lot from me to talk about anything other than investment advisory. What I found is we have several clients were actually pretty wealthy people. But they armed they still care about the Medicare part B premiums and the reason for that is because there are some income. Armed and guidelines as well in com. Our brackets on and win those brackets on there are different premiums that you were required to pay for your Medicare part B. And so if you're trying to manage your income so you make a couple 100000 bucks a year Europe successful retiree. And you know you're trying to manage how much you wanna recognize an income while. The answer is is a couple you really wanna be careful with how much you recognize so you don't. You know and and manage your self up to the next bracket or two and and instead of paying say 15100 bucks a year. Per person you spay he spent close to 5000 bottles over there about the bouquets that's what I'd call box that's why this matter so I am bringing it up here is what their final. Our rates that were announced came out ask first ball 70% of the people won't see any increase in a rich they paid a 105 before they're gonna pay a 105 now here but for the 30%. By they won't be quote unquote held harmless. And as a result they'll see an increase in premiums and you in what we expect as those premiums to go from say 12100 bucks to 15100 box at the low one of the scale per person per year. Up four to about 4000 box up to 4700. Box person. For the people at the highest ends of the income spectrum and are there is supposed to meaningful I mean are fifteen or 20% increase etc. that's a real increase for people are actually watching the stuff from OPEC and news coming out of Europe oh yeah. Oh so the head of the European Central Bank Mario trot him out this week. And he said more euros on stimulus is on the way and I probably due December 3 ECB meeting. Wind we had this awful situation and Paris's you know. I think there's certainly a lot of people saying. What's gonna happen wore the that the central banks around the world gonna do to try to support Europe much like. On our Central Bank the Fed did after 9/11 what do we do we pray that lots of money we es well that's exactly what Friday is committed to doing. In Europe as well nobody's really says we're a duo two ways. We're going to probably. I have more bond purchases. Which you know what that's gonna do it's gonna drive interest rates down even further Sharon and they're gonna consider cutting what are the benchmark lending rates further into negative territory so yet negative interest rates already on the short end of the curve you're gonna be even more negative rates when they get done this but all of this'll be done in the name of weakened demand and potential deflation are really trying to address. Potentially a softer economy and frankly the possibility of. Right although we come back and we have some more news person investors should no vote. And then also you take a look at a macro outlook promote global economic strategist and no one to cover some year end tips as well as the plans drug financial four. This is all Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what you need to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of EDD 89727526. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member to go as I can see classroom investment management is an affiliate business financial group think is located in Washington street domestically. Hi this is Avi Nelson. Others buy insurance or investment products though sometimes will benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. You should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter watcher invested in if these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management to learn more call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment. That's 888972. Plan or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group linked member tumor SIPC plans to investment management is not an affiliate of next financial grouping and is located at 980 Washington street and. Okay. The restaurant special for a minor hosts Canterbury at sea anchor desk and called Parsons joins me he's president of planned strong. Investment management too immature and just remind you Paul's toll free number is 8889727526. That's 888972. Plan. And you'd give them a call even though for the holiday week imposed is really gives the crew off. I did I did and you know what can he not to interrupt you but I got to say you know I finally figured out. One that Raff was thinking when he blew the unit for this. And I thought it took me 450 get out and I looked over us and food coma. He was getting ready for his weekend food coma that's for Thanksgiving is even in loses Thanksgiving preparation so that kind of it did. One non head of the referees of the NFL tried to explaining said. Oh yeah well look the ref lost site of the ball on the shoulder wrap friends and the rest watching Brady throw the ball unlike. And he literally blew the whistle while he's watching. Brady throw the ball on a new life. It food coma solid inside dig it illegal no sense otherwise boil it makes sense when they try to explain it I mean what is safe should a guy who blew the whistle oops can pull. Ice that's all I guess I should know about my bad I don't think you do I guess that I thinking yeah it's it's you know we'll I don't know if we'll ever know exactly who's going on the news and and so did you see the thing on FaceBook. Oh yeah you know we would had a picture of Goodell. And had a picture of the half and there was a little one of those captions above that and sang blow the whistle political. Well they believe that maybe he could actually get a call from from the main office owns this led delta that was is and introducing game really wasn't all it was sloppy I usually dangerous I usually doesn't bother me usually when I'm watching it I can go to sleep after her kill its host -- and you know let these even better my wife who really Jones it like me would neither one opposites too you know we're like fairway if they are so let's. We're from the way you want is ruining their defensive mechanism or grope with the Red Sox pass defense right. But my poor wife and I were both like. I don't fifteen or twenty minutes after we turned the lights off forced elect you weigh down in the wake up. Typically. Just couldn't get that created ball I know I I it I sort of the patriots loss would still be awake all of their. Yeah just a strange strange game that was I've never seemingly had in my life that I mean they say there have been other inadvertent whistles but disk I mean it wasn't like. You want hockey sometimes the ref lose sight of the pocket and again you can go to little player safety and act kind of stuck at the zoo was. There was nothing going. Really pretend that it no there's there's no place to hide here anyway. Now and what we get back to investing at least we know something about that goes on food coma was the cause of that guy things we know about eating or investing is that it etc. what is better than nothing exactly what as -- as do some of the news stories Paul one of the stories comes out of Argentina now has they had an election big tent and. For the first time it while it's funny and you we think about Argentina we think about the problem I don't either Democrats or from Argentina and all that well. Argentina elected themselves a new leader after a twelve year run with the Kirchner camp New York. And Nam and you know its interest thing de Kirchner is much like the Perot on this world socialist sleet beating meaning me or left. Real leftists and non but what happened was a drop in commodity prices really hurt the growth of the economy. At the exact same time Malia are re using all their social programs and spending all kinds of money with a government that order form and it welt that work out so well because the higher government spending fueled inflation and so. People had left fewer people were employed. And the value of their currency in the value their savings was beat devaluing literally as they stood there some. God it's no surprise that that Argentina decided maybe will go with someone else. What the reason I think this is incredibly important isn't because you necessarily want to invest in Argentina. But for those of you who do invest in Latin America which is short of the wrecks aren't I know we have to look at. This is not just that particular to Argentina. On Venezuela and and and certainly Brazil have been leaning left us well. And I would say dairy economies are equally lousy shape and and again for exactly the same two reasons they had socialist leaders who wanted to spend lots of money and social programs. At the exact same time that the money coming in because there commodities based exporters. Guess what dried up and so after awhile you get social unrest and you know people say it's time for change and I think. The reason this was important me was it's good to see that may be this is the first step towards. Repairing. A Latin America and and potentially the economic growth fare so certainly a worth taking a look at over time see if you might wanna think about that that region for investing. On you know once we shall more per hour. Restaurant and as you say it's it's part of many funds. And all of us all Americans are strict perhaps a little and the election is certainly something you should pay attention to yup. All right so here we are it's the holiday weekend we are right smack dab in the middle on my radar caramel all the time because again there are multiple generalize. And let. The Wall Street Journal had an interesting article this last week down Carl about winners and losers in the holiday season rice wrote that. Well you what's interest thank Tom if you would think you know certainly a lot of people in calling for the demise of bricks and mortar stores right. I'm cents on line is become you know more and more popular and in fact e-commerce has. I Don well and frankly is expected to continue to do well it's expected to grow. Stick around 8% to opera for retail sales this winter. I during this period of time by e-commerce so they've got good growth while the same time if you will Brooks and mortar retail sales supposed to be about flat. OK okay but not all things are equal and it doesn't impact everybody the same let me give a couple of examples for example. Shipping companies are not gonna do well season. Wind on well we're not shipping that much stuff from the United States overseas OK okay and so you're not me why the strong dollar and on the other hand we are shipping more stuff from overseas coming from overseas hospitals were actually seeing more demand. For goods and services say that Burberry raincoat you boys been warning and comforting but set I don't wanna pay you know whatever it is in US dollars here. But you can buy it from the at the British store or in our store in Paris or something and quiet you know when euros and and guess what get a pretty good deal and currency translation. So you know some of these are aren't some sectors are gonna do well okay. Probably sector that's gonna do the best are the delivery sack. And that what that is parcel delivery services like UPS and FedEx DHL and even the Postal Service. On and and the reason for that if you again if you think about what I just talked about that the strong dollar. Probably the one poised to do the best based on that is DHL from. And DHL's owned by Deutsche Post. I'm but they may have a really good year because their ship and all that stuff from Europe over here in the United States are by far the biggest international. Airports are Zanardi is nationally idea jones' now on the other hand retailer some retailers like and there are certain stores that are actually expected to do. OK for example on. Home Depot low and I think best spyware both schools to do okay this time but there are others that are are looking to do not nearly as well on the certainly some. An anchor tenants and some malls that they're concerned about. Also the interest thing about this is retailers are actually using last trucks because what they're doing is they're not. I'm keeping as much inventory on site in their stores and instead. You know somebody comes and their store they see the thing they like it Maceo cruel to ship it to my house. And really tried on and a different color started and get it shipped to their house senate comes from another distribution. Actually right now I've seen that happen quite the bid lately. In this that is part of it's not like I'm sorry sir we don't have it it's it's almost this is part of the deal yes you know this fits you it'll be ship strategy house. As if it's easier. And you don't even have to carry the package out of our car. Are exactly the fact the matter is it's not a bad way to do it out and it's certainly a concern the tourist rides very very interesting it allows them to kid to keep the brick and mortar without quite the same investments aren't exactly right catch him. All right well keep an eye on that now speaking of news story fives are with your big pharma and we've got. Through the bill you'll Zoltek sky I don't I have known worldwide are you can tell neither one of us read Botox RI yet give our Daria you never know god so Botox is made by a company called allergies and an allergy and Pfizer announced that they will emerge. But you know what this is this is yet another tax diversion exact all they're doing is this Pfizer which is headquartered here in the US saying look I'm paying 25. Average tax rate corporate tax rate of 25%. If I just. Changed my headquarters to move up to Dublin Ireland. I'm gonna take my average tax rate down to below 20% automatically ran OK well you know what. If you're shareholder and you look at 5% of all your profits some pretty big number there. And so while that's what they're going on and as a result I have to tell you this is yet another. And I you know issue for the United States we have got to figure out how to get our corporate tax rate to be competitive if we don't gonna continue to CD six don't be yelling at accompanies the company's serve the shareholder. This has to do with us being competitive out there on the companies are doing is to be competitive with other. Are you know drug companies around the world the not to wanted to be mean they're doing it to be competitive so we can sustain those jobs and make some money for the Cheryl. Absolutely and they have that obligation the shareholder and if you can save 567%. Stronger corporate tax rate that's a big number you have to do it that's a big and by the way after this stay says Pfizer said by the way. Kate once we close the deal and you know six to nine months and were then gonna words and thinking about breaking the company into two pieces. One piece which would have all of that drugs still covered under patent and others that are no longer patent drugs because frankly they're very different business models once or religion or work. Model wary of much thinner margins the other one this is not. And so you know it's it makes sense and it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out going down not down the road. A ball with. US homeowners gaining an equity is there's finally some of the prices are Doria Brooklyn people's homes are they spending that money can we seen that out there yet the short answer is no you know what we're seeing by the way on about 21% of homeowners were underwater with their mortgages and 2011. That's down to about 9% tennis that's real improvement rate. But what's happened is people aren't necessarily spending that increase in the long Kirk and instead they recognize that their home equity value is fought as volatile. And they actually learn something from this experience which I think is terrific. But here's the deal homeowner to homeowner equity to a great degree has been repaired at this point the question is whether. On people will realize that and that will lead them to spending more out pure in the economy. There are those who think that they will and that it will promote more economic activity. Well we come back we're going to take a look at the macro outlook from a global economic strategist and you're going to tell us what all that means victims had some good forest it's the plan's strong finance reform. This is all Parsons president of planned strong investment management and you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk stations. If you like what you hear on our show and what immediate take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of 80889727526. That's 888972. Plans to. And six. Hi this is on he Nelson if you're fifty or older here's a suggestion. Commit to getting your financial house in order over the years you worked hard took chances made sacrifices. And built up as much wealth as possible so you'd never run out of money in retirement. Well now. Who protect your retirement. If your financial life together. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management. A schedule financial checkup call 8889727526. That's 888972. Plan commit to getting your financial house in order call 888972. Plan or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group linked member tumor SIPC plans to investment management is not an affiliate of next mention grouping and is located at 980 Washington street Dedham mass. It's cholesterol financial forum under host Kevin Kerr birdie at the anchor desk and Bob Parsons with me. He's president of planned throwing investment management and debt Paul Boogaard talk a little bit about. A macro outlook in this is from an institutional strategist is that this is somebody we should be paying attention to it. Sure Islami let me explain you would almost got you know stuff mean Tennessee garbage but it's not. Good investment management firms pay a real big money for good MacWorld. Analysis works macro analysis of her macro intelligence. It means what's going on in each of the economies around the world. And what are the geopolitical. Situations that we need to be aware of that may impact how we invest time OK okay before you turn your radio off let me tell you I'm gonna. Absolutely shocked key in the next few Mets with some of the things. And a one of Barron's. Key contributors has said it has zero outlook looking forward okay shocked me okay you ready for the first one. The Paris bombings name resulted from from people illegally entering the European Union remember that I think we heard they came into Greeks aren't right. Well if the borders are maintained by all. Then the European Union becomes weak right the security becomes weak so what do you think and by the way you know that. Within the European Union they've taken down all of those customs points all the security check points. Everything to go from France to Italy or any place else now remember how you had to wait in line or ultra cut that's all gone okay. And you of one European Union so guess what if you apple weak link in the chain. You know bad people can command you know what's gonna happen. You may get members of the European Union that say hey we're not doing the same we're not gonna allow free access across our border person. Offer either people working capital or both. As a result what this really shows is that there to see possibility. And I don't how strong it is but there's a possibility. That the European Union won't surprise I'm and the reason it won't survive isn't economics prize it's actually security. And it and people would have thought of course given new grease absolutely Spain through the other problems that it was going to be Eric. Economics at the drag this down right but this you know you don't have one leader like Obama. Or any president the United States who can say I don't care if you Texas are you California or you know vibe or whoever you'll like what I'm doing tough no d.s word bonus for the whole country where you don't have a supreme leader of the European Union where does that power and so as a result. You know the one of the first litmus test for this is gonna be Britain. Britain is part of the European Union and Britain is going to the polls in 2017 to vote on its membership in the EU and so that's the first thing I picked up from this on global economic strategist is that there really is. Risk and it's geopolitical risk with the N European Union because of security not economics very interest in there OK there's another one that I've got a few I and unlike you hero. Through there's a real risk of a conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt the full. No news right. Check this out. This wrist isn't. Sign east into the current bargain basement price of oil it's really all right now is priced. Based on supply and demand it's not based on all well do you think something bad could happen. On and by the way the Russians are working on an oil deal with the saudis. And the saudis and the Russians. Both want the price of oil to be higher being needed to be higher as I've explained in many programs wine to fund their government's okay. They don't have income taxes there. They need the price of boiled behind to generate all that income to pay for the era almost taxes if you all the revenue. How to pay for their government spending vet so both of those and it Russia and Saudi Arabia want higher oil and they're getting closer and closer to gather. And the same time the US is influence in the area with the saudis guess what it's declined in migrants were not that important of them anymore you know why we're not in Afghanistan or Iraq anymore so for not they're protecting the saudis they may not need us as much. OK and so the US may not have nearly as much hole when it comes to what we wanna have happen with the price of oil. And let me just take it to the extreme. The US wants stable to lower oil prices why. Because you need lower oil prices lower energy prices to really stimulate the demand in your country OK okay. And so that's good for us to have lower oil prices but that's exactly the opposite of what the saudis and rush. What it means in the end is if the saudis and the Russians get together it could mean a price of oil could rise to seventy to eighty dollars a barrel by the end the year Monday by the end of next to Brian that's really something else well. There's another thing about the Middle East. On the Middle East doesn't just post an oil price threat it also poses a dollar demand threats and why is that. Well there are going to be more military contracts between the Russians and countries in the Middle East like Saudi Arabia. And China is already negotiating to pay for oil and you lawn rather than dollars so will be less demand for dollars. To drive the value of our currency down anchored now at the same time. This is another one that's gonna like parent fire. The Chinese are unwinding. Their positions in US treasuries they're selling their US treasury and by the way. They own some a big portion of the six trillion dollars. A US treasuries that are held by foreign entities are okay but you might sue why are they selling these well what do I think a lot of people don't understand. Is that the Chinese meet the capital for a build out of the world that runs from Beijing to Rotterdam. This is gonna be if you will the new silk road program and it's not just a row it's it's such an understatement to call it that it's actually also. On rail line and towns and cities to a company this all the way along with thousands of miles they're gonna need water resources they're gonna need pipes they're gonna need. A bridges and tunnels and infrastructure from all of that is gonna create. On a need for more infrastructure materials. So this is something again I know very little about but it's in the Chinese five and ten year plan at this point I'm and so what it means is maybe materials. Could have a rebound. On because don't forget up till now the Chinese have kind of taken their foot off the panels when it came to demand for coal and some other things for steel. In China as they were building up these cities around. On the mainland China now they may have a new project if they knew do this new project they're gonna finance it by selling treasuries. What that means is you know the price of treasuries goes down which means non interest rates probably go up okay and and at the same time it means that price of materials may go up as well if you're an investor desist. Really important stopped him bigger than the Big Dig a big draw I would say that's slightly bigger project although probably costs last shut this up or down or at least John Carroll think it was a good deal also open anyway. Now on the other thing I wanted to talk about Willis the impact of the Fed raising rates will eat half and by the way this is a short term phenomenon the stuff I was talking about the force a longer term and that aren't both of those things longer term frankly decrease the demand for the US dollar is actually devalues the currency. But shorter term we think the Fed raising rates will actually increase the value of the currency could make the currency stronger what's really going to be a promise. It's gonna hurt emerging markets and so that the currents and and by the way it's also hurt the Chinese. On and sell it when we see that Warren have to see how badly does this hurt the price of commodities and and frankly the economies emerging markets to fall league explain how that hurts emerging markets shark if the Fed raises rates. Then what happens is on our currency becomes more valuable people say oh I like to buy those bonds are paying higher interest rates. Dan compare competing bonds in an emerging market that are riskier right so what happens people take the local currency and they move and they Bonnie. The US and stats they increase the demand for the US bond which means they drive up the price for that and they pay for gas and in US dollars and sixty US dollar scare search which makes it stronger okay okay. Now finally US stocks could be possible for the rest of the year. But economic growth in 2016. Could be kind of in the one and a half to 2% range from nothing to write home about. And on this macro economist doesn't think there's going to be a large increase in fiscal spending. And he thinks a spike in the dollar could further hurt and near the earnings of multinational companies so most sectors are fairly fairly back valued. But a few unloved sectors may do battery anticipating the next upturn including materials and energy and then finally he thinks Canada. Could pose an interesting investment fair because they are government they've elected true go to be their prime minister prime minister. And he is are committed to do more deficit spending. Time and now infrastructure spend a minute that's the case that could favorably impact non financials in Canada are also short term the dollar seems strong. Were stalks seem okay the wells gonna be up or who don't work Spencer of what's your outlook for gold well gold could also see more demand on as countries continue to devalue there currencies including the Chinese the Europeans in the Japanese. So you know cut the name of the game for this our overall outlook by this macro economist is. That they see a higher numbers for oil. The US dollar and goal Paul. It's a great time permitted remind folks about to pull for number he did 89727526888972. Plan you can call. Leave your information so new to read back to on Monday to schedule knob no obligation portfolio review. With Paul and his team to be happy to sit with you for the review ADB 9727526. Or eighty. 972. Plan have always come back we're going to take a look at year end some very important tips that everybody should be thinking about as we approach. The end of the year is a player strong financial form this is. All Parsons president of planned strong investment management and you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk station. If you like what you hear on our show and what I need to take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of EDD 89727526. That's 8088972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member to go as I can sequester investment management is an affiliate business financial group thinks is located in Washington street domestically. Who's six. Hi this is Bobby Nelson. People use different strategies to acquire enough money for retirement some try to do it themselves. Others buy insurance or investment products though sometimes will benefit the seller more than the buyer what makes sense is to hire an advisor with first rate credentials and why do investment management experience. Should have a fiduciary obligation to act in your best interest. And be paid the same amount no matter watcher invested in if these things matter to you. Call Paul Parsons at planned strong investment management to learn more call 888. 9727526. Hiring the right advisor could be your best investment. That's 888972. Plan or vision plan strong dot com. Securities and investment advisory services offered through next financial group pink member former SIPC plans to investment management is not an affiliate of next financial grouping and is located and I need to Washington street Dedham mass. Oh yeah. It's quite as strong financial forum I'm your host Canterbury at the anchor Dennis can Paul Parsons is with me he's president of planned strolling investment management and we've been covering a lot of information and Paula. I know we've been talking about the last couple of weeks we've been hinting about the end of the year where it comes. Things you need to know in some helpful tips with that we are dedicate the rest of the program now to some. Really important tips of people should keep in mind as we approach the end of the year. And let me just make the pitch right now this stuff is really important and if you're doing this on your own and you are really confident about what you're doing you haven't thought through some things that I'm about talk about. Please call us and they're you know we can probably save you some serious money and we can probably help you align your investment strategy properly. At the same time and that two are very much in a related. Ryan Reynolds dimples toll free number he. 9727526. That's 888972. Plan or you're driving around accurate that down. Just remember plans strong dot com are also start off for us. What what's number one of the liberated our. I'm really gonna cover two things the first thing I'm gonna talk about this avoiding distributions in taxable accounts you this is something people it's six of one folks doesn't it's Julia and some are well you know what and and frankly it doesn't really come to mind a lot of time if you're you know if you're busy. You know why should you care about you know some mutual fund company. You know making Erica capital gains distribution you could be sitting their sick I didn't do anything Iowa I just on the position and ABC fond. And sure enough you know I still get a bill saying oh we dis we did a capital gains distribution and congratulations your 10% of the value your investment. And it's it's were paying it out she was cash. And you get a tax bill associate and say wait a minute I didn't ask I didn't sell this mutual funds but in fact. Underneath it the day investment manager did it through tenth and so let me just do your idea to sort of pitcher retention much like I tried to do without the prior sewer are realistic this real meat on the bone here. There's some if not investment vehicles out there. That our current pay really big. Capital gains distributions cheer and you might say put women at the market's not that much it doesn't matter they could have made they could've sold some of these on holdings. Long ago during a year or same weight before you know good good correction happened in mid August. In all kinds of things could have happened such that they generated. What they're not gonna pay out as Syria as a distribution so let me give an example. There's one fund a very well known fund family that as a science and technology fund that's paying out an 18%. On capital gain distributes okay. On you know there is there is no fund manager here in town. One of the largest in the world we try to fit it has it has a China Fund that's paying a 17%. I distribution and again I didn't make this happen I didn't buy sell I know nothing and yet I know you're gonna get. 22% of the value of your of your holding there's going to be paid out to you. In cash prize and you will own Biotech owe taxes on and you didn't ask for now mind you. If if this is held if you own any of these investments. In a pre tax accountant and IRA Roth IRA or 41 K Clint none of this matters to capture. But if you own any of these investments in a taxable come volatile brokerage account her children account or namely. Well you are going to be subject to this taxation and you're gonna have to pay it and and you know wide. In some cases it it's really going to be an unpleasant surprise out so. Let me just give you a little bit of of history this in 2012 it wasn't much of a problem because a lot of the investments still had losses from the financial crisis. So they could. Offset those games with him goes a long gone you are okay. And you know 2014. Had a really good year. And guess what do you know a lot of capital gains got paid out when he fourteen hour. While 2015 this post to be somewhat similar to that although the gains are unlikely to be as big as they weren't 2014 if I'm on pleasantly surprised at 2014. Pretty good chance you're gonna get on pleasantly surprised at 2050 miles well until OK so just to be an order of magnitude can. There are forty and at peace out here. That are gonna pay out more than 20%. Of the value of their assets before year rent and in some cases. These are scheduled as early as the first week of December December 4 song okay. So he may have put the soft till now what I would say eighty was please call my office first thing Monday and say hey. Here's my portfolio. It's an attack I have a bunch of stuff and taxable account can you please take a look at this let me know my really about to get whacked with a capital gains tax cuts. That's something that knew Paul can take a look castle and let folks know and there's also some things that can be done about as well apple without a doubt and that's we're going to hear this if you don't just have to sit there were taken effect or actually may be some steps that you wanna take before this distribution is paid out unit that's why you need to call us right before these distributions start getting paid out but I will tell you this. Yeah I American funds is paying their salary on December 22. Infidelities paying out there or somewhere between the fourth and eleventh IT Rowe price is paying out a bunch of dumb you know kind of mid month as well. On and and not Franklin Templeton for example on December 14 and so on and so forth so. There are a whole bunch of dates kind of in that forced through fourteen range once I get that checked it's it's true it's it's over you you can't sit ups what are you gonna have a bad you know you can't return okay. Look let me just give you an example of how this thing works. Outlets say there's an entity a fund that has a year to date return of about nothing to me noted it was zero. At the same time it's expected to pay out about 30% of its assets before year round as a capital gains distribution right. An investor put who put 101000 dollars in the investor at the beginning of 2015. We'll have now gained nothing in value and while the tax bill on. 83000. Dollar gain. Okay doesn't sound like a really good time no Norwood would zero game in your pocket right view that's a tough tax bill now if you are considering purchasing. A new investment in a taxable account for Europe the new mutual. Check to see that the investment will not be paying out a sizable capital gains really. After you by god you wanna buy it after the capital gain is paid out all other things equal prize. If it is it may make sense to postpone that purchase until after the distributions paid out. Otherwise you could just be a new investor who didn't even enjoy. The investment gains prior years but is still gets stuck with us the tax bill all that's not my idea of success and OK now if you already own an investment. This is for those of you who I really wanna stick to call to yeah. If you own an investment. That has announced a large capital gain distribution you may want to determine if you're embedded gain in the security. Is less than the expected distribution let me say the morning usually I don't know it's our it's actually quite easy to say you you bought it for eight dollars it's now worth ten dollars okay. CU had a two dollar gain and find out team on the capital gain distribution if the amount of the capital gain distribution. Is less than two dollars from then you'd eat then you would speeds just absorb the capital gain distribution. On on the other if the capital gain distributions three dollars that you may want to consider selling. Now before you eat back on our debt to a distribution or prevent. Now this is obviously something. A professional these to help with. The especially when you start putting those kind of things together this is a great reason to call you it is and again I should emphasize I'm not tax special tax professional. But there are certain speed things that we can look at and then with the help of our tax professionals. Make sure that they're your best interest of bank. Now we've established a list of many larger capital gains distributions that have already announced they've already been announced and and that they're gonna be paid out many of these are happening early to mid December and they can represented as I said more than 10% of the value of your fund. Call us and we will tell you what funds are on that Listerine can ask us about specific one or better yet you can call us and say you know what. I'm not sure if I should Seles a fright shouldn't Celek what do you think I should do when scare is okay and will work with you we your portfolio are happy to do that. Are also so what do I already have a bunch of Gaines said that I've already realize that you incurred yourself they weren't paid out as the capital gains distribution you just incurred and yourself are you and you bought low and and you and your soul saw an idea congratulations like now through Gilroy is not a wind minimize that tax hit yeah. This is the second part of this tax planning that I wanted our listeners to think forum. Because frankly again this up again applies to taxable accounts and obviously. You know you don't have to worry about your 401K plan or Iran or our race. But the idea is called tax loss selling them and what it means is you sell a security to realize a loss on an investment. Which can then be used to offset. Other capital gains that have been realized in the year. Okay that's all you're doing okay and if you do that and you recognize that loss then it's netted against the gain. And as a result you don't 08 extra taxes on OK okay so how does that work exactly well I can give me exempt shore a simple examples of us say a couple has a 101000 dollar capital gain resulting from the sale of investment aid during 2015. And they currently also own investment be they like its long term product prospects. But they bought it for 60000 dollars and now it's only worth 40000 dollars or what they could do sell that. For 40000 dollars and realize the long term loss of 20000 bucks right they could take that 20000 dollar loss and offset. That 101000 dollar gain that they had incurred earlier in the America and actually owned no income tax on that 101000 dollar gain booted from what if you still want to be a part of that yeah so if you still wanna own men thought that the security that you're selling to absorb the loss. Well there is something that you can do their thing you can't deal. Is buying. And a substantially similar security within a thirty day period for a botched. That's an arc rather than a science is something I can work with you to help you understand first of all is this holding that you wanna hold longer term. And secondly what could we use that would be not if you will substantially similar but close enough. To give you similar type investment performance and that's what we do. And if you call us what will do this will work with you to engineer. An appropriate strategy for your portfolio. All this is a lot of. Great information and certainly something people should do before the end of the year actually even sooner. If you're going to be involved in those capital gains distributions once again post Oprah number 8889727526. 888972. Plan Paul thanks so much for all the rituals you next week have a great rest the weekend it's a blast struck financial form. This is all Parsons president of planned strong investment management. And you're listening to them plans strong financial forum on WRKO. Boston's talk stations. If you like what you hear on our show and what immediate take a look at your investments and retirement plan called my office of EDD 897275260. That's 888972. Plan. Securities and investment advisory services offered through metro metro group member to go as I can sequester investment management is an affiliate business financial group think including new Washington street diplomats who threw six. Castro investment management is located at nine media Washington street Dedham mass or to go to six and to be reached at 889727526. Securities investment advisory services offered through next financial group ranked number fender SIPC classroom investment management has not affiliate of much financial grouping. This radio show is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness or not guaranteed neater next financial grouping category represented of provides talked about.